AUD/USD – Limited Movement as Business Confidence Dips

AUD/USD is showing limited movement in Tuesday, as the pair trades in the mid-0.86 range. Taking a look at Australian releases, NAB Business Confidence dropped to 4 points, while HPI slipped to 1.5%. Consumer Sentiment will be released later in the day. In the US, banks will be closed for Veterans Day, so traders can expect light trading during the day.

It’s been a poor start to the week for Australian releases. On Tuesday, NAB Business Confidence dropped to 4 points, as the key indicator has softened for a third straight month. The week started with a poor Home Loans report. The indicator posted a decline of 0.7%, marking a second straight decline. This was short of the estimate of -0.3%. Meanwhile, Chinese CPI posted a gain of 1.6%, unchanged from the previous release. The Australian dollar is sensitive to Chinese key events, as the Asian giant is Australia’s number one trading partner. Early on Tuesday, we’ll get a look at NAB Business Confidence, a key event which could impact on the direction of AUD/USD.

Employment numbers have been strong in the US, and this played a major role in the Fed decision to wind up QE last week. However, US Nonfarm Payrolls, the most important employment indicator, disappointed on Friday. The indicator slipped to 214 thousand, well short of the estimate of 235 thousand. On a brighter note, the unemployment rate slipped to 5.8%, its lowest level in six years. On Thursday, Unemployment Claims fell to 278 thousand. This was better than the estimate of 285 thousand and marked a three-week low.

AUD/USD for Tuesday, November 11, 2014

AUD/USD November 11 at 13:40 GMT

AUD/USD 0.8644 H: 0.8658 L: 0.8592

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.8315 0.8456 0.8550 0.8668 0.8763 0.8820

 

  • AUD/USD lost ground in the Asian session but recovered in European trade.
  • On the upside, 0.8668 remains under pressure. 0.8763 is stronger.
  • 0.8550 is a strong support level.
  • Current range: 0.8550 to 0.8668.

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.8550, 0.8456, 0.8315 and 0.8240
  • Above: 0.8668, 0.8763, 0.8820, 0.8953 and 0.9020

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Tuesday, continuing the direction which started the week. This is not consistent with what we’re seeing from the pair, as the Australian dollar has shown very small gains. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards AUD/USD moving higher.

 

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 00:30 Australian NAB Business Confidence. Actual -4 points.
  • 00:30 Australian HPI. Estimate 1.6%. Actual 1.5%.
  • 12:30 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 95.1 points.
  • 23:30 Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.