USD/CAD – Steady on Mixed Canadian Numbers

USD/CAD has posted slight gains on Thursday, as the pair trades in the high-1.14 range in the North American session. It’s been a miserable week for the Canadian currency, which has lost about 250 points this week. In Canada, Building Permits jumped 12.7%, but Ivey PMI slid to 51.2 points. In the US, Unemployment Claims beat expectations, dropping to 278 thousand.

Canadian key numbers were a mix on Thursday. Building Permits climbed 12.7%, crushing the estimate of 5.2%. The indicator bounced back from a dismal reading of -27.3% last month. This positive reading was tempered by the Ivey PMI report, which tumbled to 51.2 points, down from 58.6 a month earlier. The markets had expected a much stronger figure of 59.2 points.

An improving US economy has resulted in a stronger labor market, as employment numbers continue to improve. This trend was underscored on Thursday, as Unemployment Claims fell to 278 thousand. This was better than the estimate of 285 thousand and marked a three-week low. This strong figure comes on the heels of the ADP Nonfarm Payrolls report, which climbed to 230 thousand, its strongest showing in 2014. The week wraps up with the official Nonfarm Payrolls release on Friday. The markets are expecting a downturn, with the estimate standing at 229 thousand. Will the key indicator surprise the markets and beat the forecast? Nonfarm Payrolls is one of the most important indicators, so traders should be prepared for some movement from USD/CAD following its release.

 

USD/CAD for Thursday, November 6, 2014

USD/CAD November 6 at 17:20 GMT

USD/CAD 1.1434 H: 1.1442 L: 1.1380

 

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1124 1.1278 1.1414 1.1493 1.1669 1.1723

 

  • USD/CAD posted gains late in the Asian session and this continued early in European trade. The pair then reversed directions and has given up the gains made earlier in the day.
  • 1.11414 is providing weak support. 1.1278 is weaker.
  • On the upside, 1.1493 is an immediate resistance line. This is followed by 1.1669.
  • Current range: 1.1414 to 1.1669

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1414, 1.1278, 1.1124, 1.1004 and 1.0961
  • Above: 1.1493, 1.1669, 1.1723 and 1.1875

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Thursday, reversing the direction seen a day earlier. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as USD/CAD has posted gains. The ratio has a majority of short positions, indicating trader bias towards the Canadian dollar reversing direction and moving to higher ground.

 

USD/CAD Fundamentals

  • 12:30 US Challenger Job Cuts. Actual 11.9%.
  • 13:30 Canadian Building Permits. Estimate 5.2%. Actual 12.7%.
  • 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 285K. Actual 278K.
  • 13:30 US Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity. Estimate 0.9%. Actual 2.0%.
  • 13:30 US Preliminary Unit Labor Costs. Estimate 1.0%. Actual 0.3%.
  • 15:00 Canadian Ivey PMI. Estimate 59.2 points. Actual 51.2 points.
  • 15:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 86B. Actual 91B.
  • 18:30 US FOMC Member Jerome Powell Speaks.

* Key releases are in highlighted bold.

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.