Gold Calm Ahead of Unemployment Claims

Gold is calm on Thursday, as the spot price stands at $1238.67 per ounce in the European session. In the US, today’s highlight is Unemployment Claims, with the markets expecting another strong reading.

US numbers have generally been strong, but very low inflation levels continue to point to slack in the economy. On Wednesday, this trend continued with soft consumer inflation numbers. CPI rose to +0.1%, an improvement from the previous reading of -0.2%. The estimate stood at 0.0%, so the markets clearly did not have high expectations. It was a similar story from Core CPI, which also posted a 0.1%, up from 0.0% a month earlier. This was shy of the forecast of 0.2% but still within expectations.

On Friday, we’ll get a look at New Home Sales. The indicator shined last month, jumping to 504 thousand, up from 412 thousand in the previous reading. The markets are expecting a downturn in the upcoming release, with an estimate of just 473 thousand. Will the indicator beat this estimate? Earlier in the week, Existing Home Sales sparkled at 5.29 million, its best showing in a year.

 

XAU/USD for Thursday, October 23, 2014

XAU/USD October 23 at 11:15 GMT

XAU/USD 1238.67 H: 1244.63 L: 1237.40

 

XAU/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1156 1186 1215 1240 1252 1275

 

  • Gold has not showed much movement during the day, as XAU/USD continues to trade near the 1240 line.
  • On the upside, 1240 was breached earlier but recovered. 1252 is stronger.
  • 1215 is an immediate support level.
  • Current range: 1215 to 1240.

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1215, 1186, 1156 and 1111
  • Above: 1240, 1252, 1275, 1300 and 1322

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

XAU/USD ratio is unchanged on Thursday. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as gold has posted slight losses. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader sentiment in favor of gold posting gains against the dollar.

 

XAU/USD Fundamentals

  • 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 269K.
  • 13:00 US HPI. Estimate 0.4%.
  • 13:45 US Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 57.2 points.
  • 14:00 US CB Leading Index. Estimate 0.8%
  • 14:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 97B.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.