AUD/USD – Limited Movement as Australian Business Confidence Unchanged

The Australian dollar has been marked by choppy trading on Thursday, as AUD/USD is trading in the 0.87-range in the North American session. On the release front, Australian NAB Quarterly Business Confidence was unchanged at 6 points in Q3. In the US, jobless claims disappointed, jumping to 284 thousand.

US Unemployment Claims rose to 284 thousand last week, much higher than the previous reading of 264 thousand. However, the markets were not too concerned, as the four-week average, which is less volatile than the weekly release, dipped to 281,000, a 14-year low. Meanwhile, weak inflation levels continue to point to slack in the economy. On Wednesday, this trend continued with soft consumer inflation numbers. CPI rose to +0.1%, an improvement from the previous reading of -0.2%. The estimate stood at 0.0%, so the markets clearly did not have high expectations. It was a similar story from Core CPI, which also posted a 0.1%, up from 0.0% a month earlier. This was shy of the forecast of 0.2% but still within expectations.

In Australia, Business Confidence remained steady, as the key indicator posted a reading of 6 points for the third straight quarter. The Aussie initially improved after the release, climbing above the 0.88 line. However, the currency reversed directions and gave up these gains. Earlier in the week, the RBA released the minutes of its last policy meeting. Predictably, the RBA took a shot at the high value of the Australian dollar, with the central bank saying that the currency was still weighing on the economy. However, the minutes noted that Australian growth continued to be “moderate”.

 

AUD/USD for Thursday, October 23, 2014

AUD/USD October 23 at 14:20 GMT

AUD/USD 0.8764 H: 0.8806 L: 0.8750

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.8550 0.8668 0.8763 0.8820 0.8953 0.9020

 

  • AUD/USD has been marked by choppy trading for much of the day. The pair moved higher late in the Asian session and continued to post gains in the European session. The pair has reversed directions in North American trade.
  • On the upside, 0.8820 was under strong pressure earlier but held firm. 0.8953 is next.
  • 0.8763 is fluid and was tested earlier in the day. 0.8668 is stronger.
  • Current range: 0.8763 to 0.8820

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.8763, 0.8668, 0.8550 and 0.8456
  • Above: 0.8220, 0.8953, 0.9020, 0.9119 and 0.9217

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is almost unchanged on Thursday, continuing the trend seen a day earlier. This is consistent with what we’re seeing from the pair, which is almost unchanged on the day. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards AUD/USD breaking out and moving to higher ground.

 

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 00:30 Australian NAB Quarterly Confidence. Estimate 6 points. Actual 6 points.
  • 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 269K. Actual 283K.
  • 13:00 US HPI. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.5%.
  • 13:45 US Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 57.2 points. Actual 56.2 points.
  • 14:00 US CB Leading Index. Estimate 0.8%. Actual 0.9%.
  • 14:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 97B. Actual 94B.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.