Here’s where a $40 billion trade deficit comes in handy.
Because the U.S. has such a sharp imbalance between what it imports and exports, expected global weakness ahead likely won’t have a severe effect on domestic economic growth, according to a report this week from Goldman Sachs economists.
In fact, Goldman held firm to its forecast that the U.S. will significantly outperform much of the developed and emerging world—a 3 percent rise in gross domestic product for 2015 against an expected gain of just one percent or so for Japan and the euro zone. Goldman has cut its forecast for non-U.S. growth by half a percentage point but is holding fast to its expectations for the U.S. itself in the longer term even though it recently reduced its third-quarter GDP outlook.
“At a time when domestic growth drivers are clearly picking up, we see several reasons for optimism,” Goldman economists Jan Hatzius and David Mericle said in a report for clients.
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