EUR/USD – Euro Stable on Tepid Manufacturing Data

EUR/USD is stable on Friday, as the pair trades at the 1.27 line in the European session. On the release front, French Industrial Production came in at 0.0%, while Italian Industrial Production posted a slight gain of 0.3%. In the US, there are no major releases on the schedule.

Speaking in Washington on Wednesday, ECB President Mario Draghi said that that he doesn’t expect a rise in interest rates prior to 2017.Draghi defended recent monetary moves by the ECB, saying that the central bank had “acted aggressively” in easing monetary policy, such as sharp interest rate reductions and asset purchases. However, he said that the ECB could not repair the Eurozone economy on its own, and urged Eurozone member states to enact economic reforms. Meanwhile, the IMF has reduced its growth and inflation forecasts for the Eurozone for 2014, with growth expected at 0.8% and inflation at 0.5%.

US Unemployment Claims were unchanged, coming in at 287 thousand for a second straight week. This beat the estimate of 291 thousand. The indicator has now exceeded the forecast for four straight readings. Earlier in the week, JOLTS Job Openings climbed to 4.84 million, up from 4.67 million a month earlier. These numbers follow last week’s excellent Nonfarm Payrolls, pointing to a stronger job market in the US. With QE slated to end later this month, the focus will shift to the timetable for an interest rake hike. Stronger employment numbers are likely to put pressure on the Fed to make an interest rate move sooner rather than later in 2015, and increased speculation about a rate move could push the dollar even higher.

EUR/USD for Friday, October 10, 2014

EUR/USD October 10 at 9:40 GMT

EUR/USD 1.2674 H: 1.2716 L: 1.2650

EUR/USD Technical

• EUR/USD edged higher in the Asian sessions, breaking above resistance at 1.2688. The pair has retracted in European trade.
• 1.2518 is a strong support line.
• 1.2688 was breached earlier but recovered. It is a weak resistance line. 1.2806 in stronger.
• Current range: 1.2518 to 1.2688

Further levels in both directions:

• Below: 1.2518, 1.2407, 1.2286 and 1.2144
• Above: 1.2688, 1.2806, 1.2905, 1.2984 and 1.3104

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio has a slight majority of long positions, indicative of slight trader bias towards the euro posting gains against the dollar.

EUR/USD Fundamentals

• 6:45 French Industrial Production. Estimate -0.2%. Actual 0.0%.
• 8:00 Italian Industrial Production. Estimate 0.6%. Actual 0.3%.
• 12:30 US Import Prices. Estimate -0.5%.
• 13:00 US FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks.
• 18:00 US Federal Budget Balance.
• 19:30 US FOMC Member Richard Fisher Speaks.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

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