USD/CAD – Limited Movement Despite Solid Housing Data

The Canadian dollar is steady on Wednesday. Early in the North American session, USD/CAD is trading in the high-1.11 range. On the release front, Canadian Housing Starts rose slightly to 197 thousand. Over in the US, today’s highlight is the minutes of the FOMC’s most recent policy meeting. Traders should treat this event as a market-mover.

Canadian Housing Starts continued to post solid numbers in September. The indicator rose to 197 thousand, up from 192 thousand a month earlier. This was within markets expectations, as the estimate stood at 195 thousand. Earlier in the week, Building Permits took a plunge. This key release often displays strong volatility, and this was indeed the case in the August reading, as the key indicator came in at -27.3%. This follows three months of strong gains. There was much better news on Monday, as Ivey PMI improved to 58.6 points, up sharply from 50.9 points a month earlier. The strong reading easily beat the estimate of 53.4, as the index hit its highest level in 11 months.

US job numbers continue to impress. On Tuesday, JOLTS Job Openings climbed to 4.84 million, up from 4.67 million a month earlier. The indicator is on a strong upward trend, indicative of the US employment sector. Last week, Nonfarm Employment change rebounded in September, climbing to 248 thousand. This exceeded expectations of 216 thousand. The unemployment rate dipped to 5.9%, the first time it’s been below the 6% threshold in over six years. With QE slated to end later this month, the focus will shift to the timetable for an interest rake hike. Strong employment numbers such as these could put pressure on the Fed to make an interest rate move sooner rather than later in 2015, and increased speculation about a rate move will likely boost the dollar even further.

USD/CAD for Wednesday, October 8, 2014

USD/CAD October 8 at 12:05 GMT

USD/CAD 1.1173 H: 1.1188 L: 1.1153

 

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0961 1.1004 1.1124 1.1278 1.1414 1.1493

 

  • USD/CAD has shown limited movement throughout the day, trading within range.
  • 1.1124 continues to provide support.
  • 1.1278 is a strong resistance line. It has remained intact since March.
  • Current range: 1.1124 to 1.1278

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1124, 1.1004, 1.0961, 1.0852 and 1.0775
  • Above: 1.1278, 1.1414, 1.1493 and 1.1669

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is almost unchanged on Wednesday. This is consistent with the pair’s limited movement. The ratio has a majority of short positions, indicating trader bias towards the Canadian dollar breaking out of range and moving to higher ground.

 

USD/CAD Fundamentals

  • 12:15 Canadian Housing Starts. Estimate 195K. Actual 197K.
  • 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 2.1M.
  • 17:01 US 10-year  Bond Auction.
  • 18:00 US FOMC Meeting Minutes.

* Key releases are in highlighted bold.

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.