AUD/USD – Struggling Aussie at 9-Month Low

The Australian dollar remains under pressure on Monday, as AUD/USD trades at in the mid-0.87 range. The Aussie is currently trading at 9-month lows. On the release front, today’s highlight is US Pending Home Sales. After a sharp gain of 3.3% in July, the markets are braced for a sharp downturn, with an estimate of -0.4%. The only Australian release is Private Sector Credit, a minor event.

The Aussie continues to flounder and looked awful last week, shedding about 180 points against the sharp US dollar. For the month of September, the currency has plunged a remarkable 600 points. Will the downward spiral continue this week? The RBA should be pleased at the Aussie’s vanishing act, as the central bank has often expressed its unease at the currency’s high value, which has weighed on economic growth.

In the US, Core Durable Goods Orders posted a strong gain of +0.7%, bouncing back from the previous reading of -0.8%. Durable Goods Orders continues to take its riders on a roller coaster ride, plunging 18.2% in August, compared to a huge gain of 22.6% a month earlier. Unemployment Claims rose to 293 thousand, within expectations.

AUD/USD for Monday, September 29, 2014

AUD/USD September 29 at 12:40 GMT

AUD/USD 0.8731 H: 0.8747 L: 0.8684

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.8456 0.8550 0.8668 0.8763 0.8820 0.8953

 

  • AUD/USD lost ground in the Asian session but recovered those losses in European trade.
  • 0.8668 is providing strong support.
  • 0.8763 is a weak resistance line. 0.8820 is stronger.
  • Current range: 0.8668 to 0.8763

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.8668, 0.8550, 0.8456 and 0.8315
  • Above: 0.8763, 0.8820, 0.8953, 0.9020 and 0.9119

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the slumping Aussie reversing directions and moving to higher ground.

 

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 1:30 Australian Private Sector Credit. Estimate 0.5%.
  • 12:30 US Core PCE Price Index. Estimate 0.0%. Actual 0.1%.
  • 12:30 US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.5%.
  • 12:30 US Personal Income. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.3%.
  • 14:00 US Pending Home Sales. Estimate -0.4%.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.