EUR/USD – Unchanged, German Business Climate Slips

EUR/USD has been listless this week, and the lack of activity has continued on Wednesday. In the European session, the pair is trading in the mid-1.28 range. On the release front, Ifo German Business Climate softened last month, dropping to 104.6 points. In the US, today’s highlight is New Home Sales. The markets are expecting the indicator to improve in the upcoming release.

There is increasing talk about the dire straits of the Eurozone economy, which is struggling with low growth levels. Ifo German Business Climate, a key indicator, weakened for a fifth straight month. The indicator dropped to 104.7 points, shy of the forecast of 105.9 points. On Monday, Euro PMIs underscored these concerns, pointing to weaker activity in the services and manufacturing sectors. French Manufacturing PMI, a key release, improved to 48.6 points, but this still points to contraction (the 50-point level separates between contraction and expansion). German Manufacturing PMI, also a major indicator, slipped to 50.3 points, well shy of the estimate of 51.3 points. German Services PMI and the Eurozone Manufacturing and Services PMIs also lost ground in August.

US Existing Home Sales didn’t impress in August, slipping to 5.05 million, compared to 5.15 million in the previous release. This was way off the estimate of 5.21 million. The indicator had exceeded the estimate in the past three releases, so the weak numbers disappointed the markets. The markets are hoping for better news from New Home Sales, which will be released later on Wednesday. The indicator has been struggling lately, with the past two readings missing expectations. The markets are expecting a stronger reading for August, with an estimate of 432 thousand.

 

EUR/USD for Wednesday, September 24, 2014

EUR/USD September 24 at 7:45 GMT

EUR/USD 1.2862 H: 1.2864 L: 1.2839

 

EUR/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2518 1.2688 1.2806 1.2905 1.2984 1.3104

 

  • EUR/USD has shown very little movement in the Asian and European sessions.
  • 1.2806 is an immediate support level. It has remained firm since July 2013.
  • 1.2905 is the next resistance line. 1.2984 is stronger.
  • Current range: 1.2806 to 1.2905

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2806, 1.2688, 1.2518 and 1.2353
  • Above: 1.2905, 1.2984, 1.3104, 1.3175 and 1.3288

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is almost unchanged on Wednesday, continuing the trend seen a day earlier. This is consistent with the lack of movement displayed by the pair. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the euro breaking out and moving upwards.

 

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 8:00 German Ifo Business Climate. Estimate 105.9 points. Actual 104.7 points. 
  • 13:00 Belgian NBB Business Climate . Estimate -7.1 points.
  • 14:00 US New Home Sales. Estimate 432K.
  • 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 0.7M.
  • 16:05 US FOMC Member Loretta Mester Speaks.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.