Chinese Central Bank Signals Rate Cut Cycle

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) eased short-term borrowing costs for banks on Thursday, a “strong signal” that a rate cutting cycle is near, according to Barclays.

The PBoC cut the 14-day repo rate by 20 basis points to 3.5 percent in its bi-weekly open market operations, its second such move in two months after a 10 basis point reduction in July.

“[The] move sends a clear and strong signal, in our view, that the PBoC is more convinced that it needs to make more efforts to guide interest rates lower, after the July-August data pointed to a clear deterioration in the economic outlook and weakening domestic demand,” Jian Chang, China economist at Barclays wrote in note.

Economic indicators for August showed decelerating industrial production, slowing investment growth, contracting imports, subdued CPI inflation, and widening PPI deflation, fueling concerns of slowing growth in the world’s number two economy.

A rate cut would support demand, reduce the economy’s debt burden and ease financial risks, said Chang.

“A lower interest rate environment is necessary for China’s deleveraging process over the next few years,” Chang said. He expects a 25-basis-point rate cut in the fourth quarter and another in the first quarter of 2015. The one-year benchmark interest rate in China stands at 6 percent.

via CNBC

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza