US Fed FOMC Statement Keeps Considerable Time Language

“Considerable time” language hints at a longer timeframe before the Federal Reserve raises rates after the $10 billion monthly taper runs its course in the next meeting.

The Federal Reserve did not need to make the change in language today, as it has one more meeting left before the end of taper. Of course the remaining pace of bond-buying is $15 billion.

Employment continues to be top of mind for the Fed:

On balance, labor market conditions improved somewhat further; however, the unemployment rate is little changed and a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources.

Here is the “considerable time” line that the market was expecting:

The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

The closing lines form the statement keep the door open to sooner rather than later rate hikes, but the window is probably still as early as Spring 2015.

President Fisher believed that the continued strengthening of the real economy, improved outlook for labor utilization and for general price stability, and continued signs of financial market excess, will likely warrant an earlier reduction in monetary accommodation than is suggested by the Committee’s stated forward guidance. President Plosser objected to the guidance indicating that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for “a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends,” because such language is time dependent and does not reflect the considerable economic progress that has been made toward the Committee’s goals.

Fed Chair Yellen is due to speak in 10 mins and will provide more insight into the FOMC’s decision and the use of forward guidance in the future.

For the full text of the Statement visit the Fed’s Website

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza