USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Struggling Ahead of Key US Data

The Canadian dollar is lower on Friday, as USD/CAD trades in the mid-1.10 range. It’s been an awful week for the Canadian currency, which has shed close to 200 points against the surging US dollar. Taking a look at Friday’s fundamental events, In the US, it’s a busy day with the release of three major events – Retail Sales, Core Retail Sales and UoM Consumer Sentiment. There are no Canadian releases on Friday.

US employment data disappointed on Thursday, as concerns increase regarding the health of the US job market. Unemployment Claims rose to 315 thousand, the largest number of claims in 10 weeks. The reading was much higher than the estimate of 306 thousand. This follows soft numbers from JOLTS Job Openings and a dismal Nonfarm Payrolls last week. The troubling job numbers are unlikely to affect the Fed’s plan to continue trimming QE next week, but a weak labor market could postpone plans to raise interest rates by mid-2015.

Canada continues to suffer from weak inflation levels, which point to an underperforming economy. This was underscored by a weak reading from the New Housing Price Index, which dipped to 0.0%, the first time the indicator has failed to post a gain in 2014. Earlier in the week, housing data was a mix as Building Permits shot higher, but Housing Starts slipped to a five-month low.

 

USD/CAD for Friday, September 12, 2014

USD/CAD September 12 at 11:25 GMT

USD/CAD 1.1040 H: 1.1072 L: 1.1032

 

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0852 1.0961 1.1004 1.1124 1.1278 1.1414

 

  • USD/CAD has been uneventful on Friday. The pair touched a high of 1.1072 earlier in the European session, but could not consolidate at this level and has retracted.
  • 1.1124 is a strong resistance line.
  • 1.1004 is providing weak support. 1.0961 is stronger.
  • Current range: 1.1004 to 1.1124

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1004, 1.0961, 1.0852, 1.0775 and 1.0678
  • Above: 1.1124, 1.1278, 1.1414 and 1.1669

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Friday, continuing the trend we saw a day earlier. This is not consistent with the movement of the pair, as the US dollar has posted small gains. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicating trader bias towards the US dollar continuing its strong rally at the expense of the loonie.

 

USD/CAD Fundamentals

  • 12:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%.
  • 12:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.3%.
  • 12:30 US Import Prices. Estimate -0.8%.
  • 13:55 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 83.2 points.
  • 13:55 US Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations.
  • 14:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.5%.

* Key releases are in highlighted bold.

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.