EUR/USD – Little Movement in Subdued Trade

The euro continues to have a quiet week, in marked contrast to the sharp drops we saw last week. On Wednesday, EUR/USD is trading in the low-1.29 range. It could shape up to be an uneventful day for the pair, with no major releases out of the Eurozone or the US.

Will the real Germany please stand up? Recent German numbers have been mixed. GDP and Business Climate were weak, while recent manufacturing data has been sharp. This week started off on a high note, as the trade surplus climbed to EUR 22.2 billion, up from 16.2 billion a month earlier. This easily beat the estimate of 17.3 billion. The strong figure follows impressive German manufacturing data last week, led by Industrial Production, which gained 1.9% in August, its strongest showing in 2014. The euro is sensitive to German data, as Germany boasts the largest economy in the Eurozone.

US numbers continue to point to a deepening recovery, but the labor market is showing some troubling signs. JOLTS Job Openings was unchanged in August at 4.67 million, short of the estimate of 4.72 million. On Friday, the eagerly-anticipated Nonfarm Employment Change crashed to 142 thousand, its lowest gain since January. This surprised the markets, which had expected a gain of 226 thousand. The disappointing release follows a weak ADP Nonfarm Payrolls report as well as a rise in unemployment claims.

After months of fighting in eastern Ukraine between government forces and pro-Russian fighters, a ceasefire which began on Friday appears to be holding up, although some sporadic fighting has been reported. Russia has denied assisting the rebels, but both Ukraine and NATO have said that Russian forces are actively involved in the fighting. The crisis has severely strained relations between the West and Russia, and trade between Europe and Russia could be significantly affected. European countries have already implemented sanctions against Russia, and have threatened further sanctions if the ceasefire does not last.

 

EUR/USD for Wednesday, September 10, 2014

EUR/USD September 9 at 9:20 GMT

EUR/USD 1.2951 H: 1.2952 L: 1.2923

 

EUR/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2688 1.2806 1.2905 1.2984 1.3104 1.3175

 

  • EUR/USD was uneventful in the Asian session. The pair has made modest gains in the European session.
  • 1.2905 is having a busy week and has reverted back to a support role. 1.2806 is stronger.
  • 1.2984 is an immediate resistance line. 1.3104 is next.
  • Current range: 1.2905 to 1.2984

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2905, 1.2806, 1.2688 and 1.2518
  • Above: 1.2984, 1.3104, 1.3175 and 1.3288

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Wednesday, continuing the trend which has marked the ratio all week. This is not consistent with the movement we are seeing from EUR/USD, as the euro has posted small gains. The ratio still has a majority of long positions, but the percentage of short positions continues to increase. If this trend continues, we could see an even split between short and long positions sometime in September.

 

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 5:30 French Final Nonfarm Payrolls. Estimate 0.1%. Actual 0.1%.
  • 6:45 French Industrial Production. Estimate -0.4%. Actual +0.2%.
  • Tentative – German 10-year Bond Auction.
  • 14:00 US Wholesale Inventories. Estimate 0.5%.
  • 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -1.0M.
  • 17:01 US 10-year Bond Auction.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.