US Growth Has Kept Global Stability in Risky Times

Europe appears on the brink of another recession. Islamic militants have seized Iraqi territory. Russian troops have massed on the Ukraine border, and the resulting sanctions are disrupting trade. An Ebola outbreak in Africa and Israel’s war in Gaza are contributing to the gloom.

It’s been a grim summer in much of the world. Yet investors in the United States have largely shrugged it off — so far at least.

A big reason is that five years after the Great Recession officially ended, the U.S. economy is showing a strength and durability that other major nations can only envy. Thanks in part to the Federal Reserve’s ultra-low interest rates, employers have ramped up hiring, factories have boosted production and businesses have been making money.

All of this has cushioned the U.S. economy from the economic damage abroad. And investors have responded by keeping U.S. stocks near all-time highs. Not even reports Friday of a Ukrainian attack on Russian military vehicles unnerved investors for long, with blue chip stocks regaining nearly all their midday losses by the close.

“We’re in a much better place psychologically,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “And it’s allowing us to weather the geopolitical threats much more gracefully.”

Still, the global turmoil comes at a delicate time.

China, the world’s second-biggest economy, is struggling to contain the fallout from a runaway lending and investment boom that’s powered its growth since before the 2008 financial crisis. The economies of Japan and Germany, the world’s third- and fourth-largest, shrank in the spring. So did Italy’s.

It might not take much — an oil-price spike, a prolonged recession in Europe, a plunge in business or consumer confidence — to derail the global economy.

via Mainichi

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza