EUR/USD – Stable Ahead of Key US Data

The euro is firm on Friday, as the pair trades quietly in the high-1.33 range. On the release front, there are no Eurozone events as we wrap up the week. In the US, it’s a busy day, led by two key events on the calendar – PPI and UoM Consumer Sentiment. The markets are bracing for a soft PPI, while Consumer Sentiment is expected to post another strong reading.

It was a busy week in the Eurozone, with plenty of growth and inflation data for the markets to analyze and absorb. Despite broad interest rate cuts by the ECB in June, the Eurozone continues to limp along, including Germany, the region’s locomotive. Economic growth remains in the doldrums, as underscored by Thursday’s releases. French Preliminary GDP remained flat at 0.0%, unchanged from a month earlier. German Preliminary GDP slipped to -0.2%, the first contraction in the German economy since Q4 of 2012. Eurozone Flash GDP also weakened to -0.2%, down from 0.0% in the previous release. All three GDP releases missed their estimates, and the weak numbers could push the euro even lower.

On the inflation front, the news is not good, as deflation is a growing concern. On Thursday, Eurozone Final CPI dipped to 0.4%, down from 0.5% a month earlier. Eurozone Final Core CPI, a minor event, remained unchanged at 0.8%. Both indicators matched the forecast. On Wednesday, German inflation numbers remained weak, while French CPI posted its first decline since January.

With the Eurozone economy sputtering, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that this week’s confidence indicators pointed sharply downwards. German ZEW Economic Sentiment, a key release, took a tumble in July, falling to just 8.6 points, down from 27.1 points a month earlier. This was its lowest level since November 2012. Weakening confidence in the economy could lead to decreased spending and hiring and weigh on economic growth.

In the US, Unemployment Claims came in higher than expected. The indicator climbed to 311 thousand, marking a six-week high. The estimate stood at 307 thousand. Employment indicators are being closely scrutinized by analysts, as the strength of the labor market is one of the most important factors influencing the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of an interest rate hike. A rate increase is expected by mid-2015, but stronger economic data, especially on the employment front, could hasten a move by the Fed. Earlier in the week, JOLTS Job Openings hit its highest level in 13 years, although it too missed expectations.

Meanwhile, US retail sales data disappointed on Wednesday. Retail Sales dropped to a flat 0.0% last month, its weakest showing since January. The estimate stood at 0.2%. Core Retail Sales wasn’t much better, posting a gain of 0.1%, down from 0.4% a month earlier. This was well short of the estimate of 0.4%. Retail sales are the primary gauge of consumer spending, and July’s weak numbers points to a slow start to the third quarter. Although unemployment levels have dropped, this has not translated into stronger consumer spending, a key component of economic growth.

 

EUR/USD for Friday, August 15, 2014

EUR/USD August 15 at 9:35 GMT

EUR/USD 1.3368 H: 1.3381 L: 1.3359

 

EUR/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.3175 1.3295 1.3346 1.3487 1.3585 1.3651

 

  • EUR/USD was flat in Asian trading. In the European session, the pair rose to a high of 1.3392 but has retracted.
  • 1.3346 remains a weak support line. 1.3295 is stronger.
  • 1.3487 is a strong resistance line.
  • Current range: 1.3346 to 1.3487

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3346, 1.3295, 1.3175 and 1.3104
  • Above: 1.3487, 1.3585, 1.3651 and 1.3793

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is almost unchanged in Friday trade. This is consistent with the pair’s current movement, as the euro is showing little movement. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the euro moving to higher ground.

 

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 12:30 US PPI. Estimate 0.1%.
  • 12:30 US Core PPI. Estimate 0.2%.
  • 12:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 20.3 points.
  • 13:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases. Estimate 27.3B points.
  • 12:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 20.3 points.
  • 13:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases. Estimate 27.3B.
  • 13:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Estimate 79.2%.
  • 13:15 US Industrial Production. Estimate 0.3%.
  • 13:55 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 82.7 points.
  • 13:55 US Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

In the US, JOLTS Job Openings improved to 4.67 million, its third consecutive gain from the previous release. However, this fell short of expectations, as the estimate stood at 4.74 million. In the US, employment indicators are under the market microscope, as the strength of the labor market is one of the most important factors influencing the Federal Reserve regarding the timing of an interest rate hike. A rate increase is expected by mid-2015, but stronger economic data, especially on the employment front, could hasten a move by the Fed.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.