EUR/USD – Euro Dips on Mixed PMIs

EUR/USD has lost ground on Tuesday, as the pair trades below the 1.34 line in the European session. Eurozone Services PMIs were a mix on Tuesday, and Eurozone Retail Sales met expectations. In the US, today’s highlight is ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

Eurozone PMIs are closely tracked by analysts, as they are important gauges of the health of key sectors in the Eurozone economies. Services PMIs painted a mixed picture on Tuesday. The Spanish PMI rose to 56.2 points, beating the estimate of 55.1. The Italian release dipped to 52.8, shy of the estimate of 53.2. Eurozone Final Services PMI improved last month, hitting 54.2, very close to the estimate of 54.4 points. All of the readings were above the 50-point level, which point to expansion in the services sectors. Elsewhere, Eurozone Retail Sales, the primary gauge of consumer spending, rose to 0.4%, matching the forecast. This was a strong improvement from the flat 0.0% reading a month earlier.

US employment numbers were a disappointment last week, although there was good news in other sectors. On Friday, Nonfarm Payrolls took a tumble, slipping to 209 thousand, compared to 288 thousand a month earlier. This was well below the estimate of 231 thousand and marked a four-month low. Earlier in the week, Unemployment Claims rose to 302 thousand, very close to the estimate of 303 thousand. There was positive news from the manufacturing sector, as US ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 57.1 points, its best showing since November. As well, UoM Consumer Sentiment continues to look strong, coming in at 81.8 points. The index has not been below the 80-point level in 2014, pointing to strong consumer confidence.

 

EUR/USD for Tuesday, August 5, 2014

EUR/USD August 5 at 12:15 GMT

EUR/USD 1.3382 H: 1.3425 L: 1.3481

 

EUR/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.3175 1.3295 1.3346 1.3487 1.3585 1.3651

 

  • EUR/USD was flat in the Asian session. The pair has weakened in the European session, dropping below the 1.34 line.
  • 1.3346 is an immediate support level and could face strong pressure during the day. 1.3295 is stronger.
  • 1.3487 is the next resistance line. 1.3585 follows.
  • Current range: 1.3346 to 1.3487

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3346, 1.3295, 1.3175 and 1.3104
  • Above: 1.3487, 1.3585, 1.3651 and 1.3786

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions in Tuesday trade, reversing the direction seen a day earlier. This is not consistent with the movement displayed by the pair, as the euro has posted losses. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the euro reversing directions and moving higher.

 

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 7:15 Spanish Services PMI. Estimate 55.1 points. Actual 56.2 points.
  • 7:45 Italian Services PMI. Estimate 53.2 points. Actual 52.8 points.
  • 8:00 Eurozone Final Services PMI. Estimate 54.4 points. Actual 54.2 points.
  • 9:00 Eurozone Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4. Actual 0.4%.
  • 13:45 US Final Services PMI. Estimate 61.0 points.
  • 14:00 ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 56.6 points.
  • 14:00 US Factory Orders. Estimate 0.6%.
  • 14:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Estimate 46.2 points.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.