USD/CAD – Loonie Improves on Canadian GDP

USD/CAD has dipped below the 1.09 level in Thursday’s North American session, as the Canadian dollar has halted its recent slide. The loonie received some much-needed help as Canadian GDP beat the estimate and posted a 0.4% gain in June. South of the border, US Unemployment Claims softened, coming in at 302 thousand.

The Canadian dollar has had a rough week, as USD/CAD climbed above the 1.09 for the first time since mid-June. The loonie has showed some life on Thursday, courtesy of unexpected positive news from Canadian GDP. The key indicator rose 0.4% in June, edging above the estimate of 0.3%. Canadian GDP is released on a monthly, rather than quarterly basis, and this was the indicator’s best showing since February.

In the US, Unemployment Claims rose last week, hitting 302 thousand. This was within expectations, as the estimate stood at 303 thousand. We’ll get another look at key employment data on Friday, as the US releases Nonfarm Payrolls and the unemployment rate. Earlier in the week, ADP Nonfarm Payrolls softened, and the markets are bracing for a weak reading from the Friday NFP release, which could push the dollar down against its major rivals.

In the US, Advance GDP soared in Q2, posting a gain of 4.0%. This easily beat the estimate of 3.1%. The boost in economic activity was boosted by strong consumer confidence and business activity in Q2. The dollar has responded positively, posting broad gains. Earlier in the week, CB Consumer Confidence pointed to an optimistic US consumer. The key indicator jumped to 90.9 points, crushing the estimate of 85.5 points. This was the indicator’s highest level since September 2007. Consumer confidence is closely tracked by analysts since a confident consumer is likely to increase consumption, which is critical for economic growth.

 

USD/CAD for Thursday, July 31, 2014

USD/CAD July 31 at 15:35 GMT

USD/CAD 1.0880 H: 1.0930 L: 1.0877

 

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0678 1.0775 1.0852 1.0961 1.1004 1.1124

 

  • USD/CAD was uneventful in the Asian and European sessions. The pair has dropped below the 1.09 line in North American trading.
  • On the upside, 1.0961 has strengthened as the pair trades at lower levels.
  • 1.0852 is an immediate support level. 1.0775 is stronger.
  • Current range: 1.0852 to 1.0961

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.0852, 1.0775, 1.0678 and 1.0572
  • Above: 1.0961, 1.1004 and 1.1124

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions in Thursday trade, reversing the movement we saw a day earlier. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as the Canadian dollar has posted gains. The ratio is almost evenly split between long and short positions, indicative of a lack of trader bias regarding what direction the pair will take.

 

USD/CAD Fundamentals

  • 12:30 Canadian GDP. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.5%.
  • 11:30 US Challenger Job Cuts. Actual 24.4%.
  • 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 303K. Actual 302K.
  • 12:30 US Employment Cost Index. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.7%.
  • 13:45 US Chicago PMI. Estimate 63.2 points. Actual 52.6 points.
  • 14:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 92B. Actual 88B.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.