GBP/USD – Dollar Improves on US Consumer Confidence

GBP/USD has lost ground on Tuesday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.69 range in the North American session. The sagging pound has now lost about  200 points in the past two weeks. In economic news, British Net Lending to Individuals met expectations. Over in the US, CB Consumer Confidence stunned the markets, pushing above the 90-point level for the first time since late 2007. The excellent release has helped boost the dollar at the expense of the pound.

If CB Consumer Confidence is any indication, the US consumer is brimming with optimism about the economy. The key indicator jumped to 90.9 points, crushing the estimate of 85.5 points. This was the indicator’s highest level since September 2007. Consumer confidence is closely tracked by analysts since a confident consumer is likely to increase consumption, which is critical for economic growth. Meanwhile, traders can expect stronger currency movement on Wednesday, with three key events on the calendar. The Federal Reserve will release a policy statement and we’ll get a look at Advance GDP and the ADP Nonfarm Payrolls. If these releases surprise the markets, we could see increased activity in the currency markets.

US housing numbers were dismal on Monday. Pending Home Sales came in at -1.1% in June, the worst reading we’ve seen in 2014 from the key housing indicator. The reading was much worse than anticipated, as the estimate stood at -0.2%. Housing numbers were all over the map last week, as Existing Home Sales exceeded expectations, while New Home Sales softened last month.

 

GBP/USD for Tuesday, July 29, 2014

GBP/USD July 29 at 15:30 GMT

GBP/USD 1.6944 H: 1.6995 L: 1.6934

 

GBP/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.6700 1.6825 1.6920 1.7000 1.7183 1.7228

 

  • GBP/USD was uneventful in the Asian session. The pair lost ground in the European session. In North American trading, GBP/USD is unchanged.
  • 1.6920 is under strong pressure. Will the pair break below this barrier? 1.6825 is next.
  • On the upside, 1.7000 has some breathing room as the pound trades at lower levels. 1.7183 is next.
  • Current range: 1.6920 to 1.7000.

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.6920, 1.6825, 1.6700 and 1.6556
  • Above: 1.7000, 1.7183, 1.7228 and 1.7383

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

GBP/USD is pointing to gains in long positions in Tuesday trade, continuing the trend which has marked the ratio since last week. This is not consistent with the movement of the pair, as the pound has lost ground. A substantial majority of open positions in the GBP/USD ratio are short, indicative of a trader bias towards the dollar continuing to move higher.

 

GBP/USD Fundamentals

  • 7:00 BOE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent Speaks.
  • 8:30 British Net Lending to Individuals. Estimate 2.6B. Actual 2.5B.
  • 8:30 British M4 Money Supply. Estimate 0.0%. Actual 0.1%.
  • 8:30 British Mortgage Approvals. Estimate 63K. Actual 67K.
  • 13:00 US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI. Estimate 9.8%. Actual 9.3%.
  • 14:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 85.5 points.

* Key releases are highlighted in bold
*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.