EUR/USD – Steady on Solid PMIs in Germany, Eurozone

EUR/USD has posted slight gains on Thursday, as the pair trades in the high-1.34 range in the European session. The euro received some help as German and Eurozone PMIs met or exceeded expectations. However, French PMI data was not as positive. In Spain, the unemployment rate dropped below 25% for the first time in almost two years. In the US, today’s key events are Unemployment Claims and New Home Sales. The markets are braced for weaker numbers from both releases.

Eurozone PMIs were released on Thursday, and the news was generally encouraging. German Services and Manufacturing PMIs improved in June and beat their estimates. Services PMI was particularly impressive, hitting a three-year high, at 56.6 points. In the Eurozone, Services PMI easily beat the estimate, while Manufacturing PMI met expectations. In France, the PMI data failed to keep pace with its European counterparts. Manufacturing PMI came in below the 50-point level for a second straight month, which points to contraction in the manufacturing sector. Services PMI pushed above 50 for the first time since March, indicating expansion.

US numbers were a mix on Tuesday. Inflation numbers continue to struggle, as Core CPI posted a paltry gain of 0.1%, shy of the estimate of 0.2%. The key index has looked anemic in 2014, with its highest gain this year at just 0.3%. CPI was bit stronger, as it gained 0.3% last month, matching the forecast. Meanwhile, Existing Home Sales jumped to 5.04 million, surpassing the estimate of 4.94 million. This was the best showing we’ve seen since October, and follows a disappointing release from Housing Starts, which was published last week.

 

EUR/USD for Thursday, July 24, 2014

EUR/USD July 24 at 10:10 GMT

EUR/USD 1.3475 H: 1.3485 L: 1.3438

 

EUR/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.3175 1.3295 1.3346 1.3487 1.3585 1.3651

 

  • EUR/USD was flat for most of the Asian session. The pair has edged higher in European trading.
  • 1.3346 is providing strong support.
  • On the upside, 1.3487 remains under pressure. 1.3585 is stronger.
  • Current range: 1.3346 to 1.3487

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3346, 1.3295, 1.3175 and 1.3104
  • Above: 1.3487, 1.3585, 1.3651 and 1.3786

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Thursday, reversing directions from a day earlier. This is not consistent with the movement of the pair, as the euro has posted strong gains. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the euro moving to higher ground.

 

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 7:00 French Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 48.5 points. Actual 47.6 points.
  • 7:00 French Flash Services PMI. Estimate 48.9 points. Actual 50.4 points.
  • 7:00 Spanish Unemployment Rate. Estimate 25.9%. Actual 24.5%.
  • 7:30 German Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 52.2 points. Actual 52.9 points.
  • 7:30 German Flash Services PMI. Estimate 54.7 points. Actual 56.6 points.
  • 8:00 Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 52.0 points. Actual 51.9 points.
  • 8:00 Eurozone Flash Services PMI. Estimate 52.7 points. Actual 54.4 points.
  • 8:00 Eurozone Italian Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4%. Actual -0.7%.
  • 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 310K.
  • 13:45 US Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 57.5 points.
  • 14:00 US New Home Sales. Estimate 485K.
  • 14:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 95B.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.