AUD/USD: Flat as Markets Eye RBA Minutes

AUD/USD is showing little movement on Monday, as the pair trades just shy of the 0.94 line in the North American session. There are no releases out of Australia or the US, but the markets are keeping a close eye on the RBA Policy Meeting minutes, which will be released early on Tuesday.

Australian employment data was a mix in June. Employment Change rebounded in June with a strong gain of 15.9 thousand, easily beating the estimate of 12.3 thousand. At the same time, Unemployment Rate rose to 6.0%, the highest level seen since February. This edged above the estimate of 5.9%. Meanwhile, consumer and business confidence levels, both of which are important catalysts for economic growth, looked solid. NAB Business Confidence hit its highest level since January, while Westpac Consumer Confidence gained 1.9%, an eight-month high.

In the US, employment data continues to impress. Last week, Unemployment Claims dropped to 304 thousand, well below the estimate of 316 thousand. Employment numbers for June looked sharp, led by a jump in Nonfarm Payrolls and a drop in the unemployment rate. The strong employment numbers have increased speculation about an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, and remarks by Fed policymakers will be closely scrutinized as the markets look for clues as to the timing of any rate moves.

The Federal Reserve minutes did not shed much light on when the Fed plans to raise interest rates, but policymakers did agree to wind up the QE scheme by October. The asset purchase program flooded the economy with over $2 trillion, and the Fed has been steadily reducing the program since last December. Winding down QE, which currently stands at $45 billion/month, will require several more tapers by the Fed, but that shouldn’t pose a problem, given the solid employment data the economy has been churning out.

 

AUD/USD for Monday, July 14, 2014

AUD/USD July 14 at 14:25 GMT

AUD/USD 0.9393 H: 0.9403 L: 0.9382

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.9119 0.9229 0.9361 0.9446 0.9617 0.9757

 

  • AUD/USD edged upwards in the Asian session, and has remained steady since.
  • 0.9361 continues to provide weak support. There is stronger support at 0.9229.
  • 0.9446 is the next resistance line. This is followed by resistance at 0.9617.

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.9361, 0.9229, 0.9119 and 0.9000
  • Above: 0.9446, 0.9617, 0.9757 and 0.9842

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is almost unchanged in Monday trade, continuing the trend we saw on Friday. This is consistent with the movement of the pair, as the Australian dollar is showing little movement to start off the week. The ratio remains almost evenly split between long and short positions, indicative of a lack of trader bias towards where the Australian dollar is headed.

 

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • There are no Australian or US releases on Monday.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.