USD/CAD: Almost Unchanged as US Unemployment Claims Steady

USD/CAD has edged lower on Thursday, as the pair trades just above the 1.07 line early in the North American session. In economic news, today’s major event was US Unemployment Claims. The indicator came in within expectations, showing little change from the previous release. There are no Canadian releases until Friday.

US indicators pointed downwards on Wednesday, led by a dismal Final GDP reading in Q1. The markets were braced for a decline of 1.8%, but the key indicator shocked with a much sharper drop of 2.9%. There was more bad news to follow, as Core Durable Goods Orders declined by 0.1%, its first decline in five months. The estimate stood at 0.3%. Durable Goods Orders looked even worse, coming in at -1.0%, shy of the estimate of -0.1%.  Despite the awful GDP, the currency markets remain calm and the US dollar is holding its own against its Canadian counterpart.

The Canadian dollar continues to trade at its highest levels since January. The currency received a boost from strong releases last week, highlighted by positive inflation and retail sales numbers last Friday. On Friday, we’ll get a look at the first releases out of Canada this week, with the publication of inflation indicators in the manufacturing sector. The markets are expecting a strong gain in the May reading, and good news on the inflation front could boost the Canadian dollar.

 

USD/CAD for Thursday, June 26, 2014

USD/CAD June 26 at 13:25 GMT

USD/CAD 1.0712 H: 1.0725 L: 1.0705

 

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0572 1.0678 1.0706 1.0775 1.0852 1.0906

 

  • The pair has showed very little movement on Thursday, trading slightly above the 1.07 level.
  • 1.0775 is the next resistance line. 1.0852 is stronger.
  • 1.0706 remains an immediate support level. Will the pair break below this barrier? This is followed by 1.0678, which was last tested in early January.
  • Current range: 1.0706 to 1.0775

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.0706, 1.0678, 1.0572 and 1.0414
  • Above: 1.0775, 1.0852, 1.0906 and 1.10

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is almost unchanged in Thursday trade, continuing the trend which has marked the ratio for most of the week. This is consistent with the lack of movement by the pair. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the US dollar breaking out and moving higher.

 

USD/CAD Fundamentals

  • 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 314K. Actual 312K.
  • 12:30 US Core PCE Price Index. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.2%.
  • 12:30 US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.2%.
  • 12:30 US Personal Income. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.4%.
  • 14:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 101B.
  • 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate -1.2M.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.