AUD/USD: Modest Losses Ahead of US Housing, Consumer Confidence Data

The Australian dollar has lost ground on Tuesday, giving up the gains made a day earlier. Early in the North American  session, the pair is trading slightly shy of the 0.94 line. In the US, today’s highlights are CB Consumer Confidence and New Home Sales, the second key housing event this week. There are no Australian releases on Tuesday.

Key Chinese releases often have an impact on the movement of AUD/USD, as China is Australia’s number one trading partner. On Monday, Chinese Flash Manufacturing PMI moved above the 50-point level for the first time since November, pointing to expansion in the manufacturing sector. The strong reading helped the Aussie push as high as 0.9445 on Monday.

The Federal Reserve continued to trim its QE program last week, reducing the scheme by $10 billion, to $35 billion/month. If all goes as planned, the Fed could wind up QE in the fall. The Fed also hinted that interest rates will continue to stay low for the foreseeable future, which likely means that we won’t see any rate hikes before the first quarter of 2015. With regard to economic activity, the Fed noted that the recovery is continuing, but it reduced its forecast of economic growth to 2.1-2.3%, down from an earlier forecast of around 2.9 percent. The bottom line? There were no dramatic items in the Fed statement, with one analyst describing current Fed policy as “steady as she goes”.

 

AUD/USD for Tuesday, June 24, 2014

AUD/USD June 24 at 13:10 GMT

AUD/USD 0.9390 H: 0.9431 L: 0.9387

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.9119 0.9229 0.9361 0.9446 0.9617 0.9757

 

  • AUD/USD has been losing ground since late in the Asian session. The pair dropped below the 0.94 line early in European trading and the US dollar remains under pressure.
  • 0.9361 has weakened and is an immediate support line.
  • 0.9446 is the next resistance line. 0.9617 is stronger.

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.9361, 0.9229, 0.9119 and 0.9000
  • Above: 0.9446, 0.9617, 0.9757 and 0.9847

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Tuesday, continuing the direction seen a day earlier. This is not consistent with the movement of the pair, as the Australian dollar has posted losses. The ratio is almost evenly split between short and long positions, pointing to a lack of trader bias as to the future movement of AUD/USD.

 

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 14:00 US CB Consumer Confidence. Estimate 83.6 points.
  • 14:00 US New Home Sales. Estimate 442K.
  • 14:00 US Richmond Manufacturing Index. Estimate 6 points.
  • 14:00 US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew Speaks.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.