USD/CAD – Listless as US CPI Beats Estimate

USD/CAD is stable on Tuesday, as the pair continues to trade in the mid-1.08 range in the North American session. In the US, it was a mixed day as housing numbers softened in May but CPI releases beat their estimates. There are no Canadian releases on Tuesday.

In the US, housing data was a disappointment, as Building Permits dropped to 0.99M, well below the estimate of 1.07M. As well, Housing Starts dropped to 1.00M, shy of the estimate of 1.04M. On the inflation front, CPI moved up modestly, posting a gain of 0.3%. This was the strongest gain we’ve seen since January 2013. CPI followed suit, climbing to an eleven-month high. The index rose to 0.4%, beating the estimate of 0.2%.

The markets are keeping a close eye on the US Federal Reserve, which issues a policy statement on Wednesday, with the markets expecting another $10 billion trim to QE, which would reduce the asset purchase program to $35 billion/month. Fed chair Janet Yellen is not expected to provide any time guidelines about a rate hike, so traders shouldn’t expect a repeat of the fireworks we saw with the British pound, which soared following comments about a possible rate hike by BOE Governor Mark Carney.

In Canada, the week got off to a positive start as Foreign Securities Purchases posted a gain of $10.13 billion, its highest level since last May. The estimate stood at $4.27 billion. The Canadian dollar shrugged off a dismal Manufacturing Sales reading on Friday, as the key indicator came in at -0.1%, well short of the estimate of +0.9%.

 

USD/CAD for Tuesday, June 17, 2014

USD/CAD June 17 at 14:50 GMT

USD/CAD 1.0865 H: 1.0875 L: 1.0849

 

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0706 1.0775 1.0852 1.0906 1.1000 1.1094

 

  • 1.0906 continues to provide resistance. The key level of 1.1000 is stronger.
  • The pair is testing support at 1.0852. The next support line is at 1.0775, which has held firm since January.
  • Current range: 1.0852 to 1.0906

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.0852, 1.0775, 1.0706 and 1.0678
  • Above: 1.0906, 1.10, 1.1094 and 1.1177

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Tuesday, continuing the trend we saw at the start of the week. This is consistent with the pair’s movement, as the US dollar has edged higher. The pair has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the US dollar posting gains.

The Canadian dollar continues to show little movement. The pair is unchanged in the North American session.

 

USD/CAD Fundamentals

  • 12:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 1.07M. Actual 0.99M.
  • 12:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.3%.
  • 13:00 US CPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.4%.
  • 13:15 US Housing Starts. Estimate 1.04M.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.