AUD/USD – Aussie Steady Ahead of RBA Minutes

The Australian dollar has started the week quietly, as the pair trades at the 0.94 line early in the North American session. The Aussie looked sharp last week, gaining about 100 points against its US counterpart. On the release front, the sole Australian release is a speech by RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent in Sydney. Early on Tuesday, the RBA releases its monetary policy minutes. In the US, there was good news as the Empire State Manufacturing Index posted another strong reading. Capacity Utilization Rate and Industrial Production met expectations.

The US ended a rough week on a sour note, as inflation and consumer confidence numbers missed their estimates. PPI, a key gauge of inflation in the manufacturing sector, came in at -0.2%, its worst reading since October. The estimate stood at 0.1%. Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment also lost ground, falling to 81.3 points, short of estimate of 83.3. However, with only one reading this year below the 80-point level, US consumer confidence remains at high levels.

Thursday’s key US events were a major disappointment, as retail sales and employment numbers were weak. Retail Sales came in at 0.3%, short of the estimate of 0.5%. Core Retail Sales could only muster a gain of 0.1%, shy of the forecast of 0.4%. Unemployment Claims, one of the most important economic indicators, rose to 317 thousand, missing market expectations of 306 thousand.

Australian Employment Change came in at -4.8 thousand in May, surprising the markets which had expected a gain of 10.3 thousand. This marked the sharpest decline in employed individuals since December. The Unemployment Rate remained pegged at 5.8%, better than the estimate of 5.9%. Earlier in the week, ANZ Job Advertisements took a tumble, posting a sharp decline of 5.6%, its worst showing in three years. On the inflation front, MI Inflation Expectations came in at 4.0%, lower than last month but still at a high level.

 

AUD/USD for Monday, June 16, 2014

AUD/USD June 16 at 14:30 GMT

AUD/USD 0.9397 H: 0.9417 L: 0.9374

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.9119 0.9229 0.9361 0.9446 0.9617 0.9757

 

  • AUD/USD is not showing much movement on Monday. The pair touched a high of 0.9417 late in the Asian session but was unable to consolidate at these levels.
  • 0.9361 is providing weak support. 0.9229 is a stronger line.
  • On the downside, 0.9446 is the next resistance line. This is followed by resistance of 0.9617.

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.9361, 0.9229, 0.911 and, 0.9000
  • Above: 0.9446, 0.9617, 0.9757 and 0.9886

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions. This is consistent with the movement of the pair, as the Australian dollar has posted very small gains. The pair has a majority of short positions, indicative of a trader bias towards the US dollar breaking out and posting gains.

AUD/USD is trading at the 0.94 line. The pair has edged higher in the North American session.

 

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 3:20 RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent Speaks.
  • 12:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 15.2 points. Actual 19.3 points.
  • 13:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases. Estimate 41.3 B. Actual -24.2B.
  • 13:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Estimate 78.9%. Actual 79.1%.
  • 13:15 US Industrial Production. Estimate 0.6%. Actual 0.6%.
  • 14:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 47 points.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.