AUD/USD – Aussie Crosses 0.94 Despite Weak Australian Employment Change

AUD/USD has posted gains on Thursday, as the pair trades above the 0.94 line in the North American session. The Aussie has gained about 150 points in the past week and is trading at two-month highs against the US dollar. On the release front, Australian Employment Change posted its worst reading of the year, while the Unemployment Rate was unchanged. In the US, retail sales numbers were weak and Unemployment Claims were well above the estimate.

Thursday’s key US events were a major disappointment, as retail sales and employment numbers were weak. Retail Sales came in at 0.3%, short of the estimate of 0.5%. Core Retail Sales could only muster a gain of 0.1%, shy of the forecast of 0.4%. Unemployment Claims, one of the most important economic indicators, rose to 317 thousand, missing market expectations of 306 thousand.

Australian Employment Change came in at -4.8 thousand in May, surprising the markets which had expected a gain of 10.3 thousand. This marked the sharpest decline in employed individuals since December. The Unemployment Rate remained pegged at 5.8%, better than the estimate of 5.9%. Earlier in the week, ANZ Job Advertisements took a tumble, posting a sharp decline of 5.6%, its worst showing in three years. On the inflation front, MI Inflation Expectations came in at 4.0%, lower than last month but still at a high level.

 

AUD/USD for Thursday, June 12, 2014

AUD/USD June 12 at 14:15 GMT

AUD/USD 0.9423 H: 0.9426 L: 0.9354

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.9119 0.9229 0.9361 0.9446 0.9617 0.9757

 

  • AUD/USD continues to gain ground on Thursday. The pair pushed above the 0.94 in the European session.
  • 0.9361 is providing support. 0.9229 is a stronger line.
  • On the downside, 0.9446 is under pressure. Will this line fall in the North American session? This is followed by resistance of 0.9617.

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.9361, 0.9229, 0.911 and, 0.9000
  • Above: 0.9446, 0.9617, 0.9757 and 0.9886

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions, reversing the trend seen a day earlier. This is not consistent with the movement of the pair, as the Australian dollar has posted gains. The pair has a substantial majority of short positions, indicative of a trader bias towards the Australian dollar reversing direction and losing ground.

AUD/USD continues to impress with gains on Thursday. The pair has edged higher in the North American session.

 

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 12:59 Australian MI Inflation Expectations. Actual 4.0%.
  • 00:30 Australian Employment Change. Estimate +10.3K. Actual -4.8K.
  • 00:30 Australian Unemployment Rate. Estimate 5.9%. Actual 5.8%.
  • 12:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.1%. 
  • 12:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.3%.
  • 12:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 306K. Actual 317K.
  • 12:30 US Import Prices. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.1%.
  • 14:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.6%.
  • 14:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 111B. Actual 107B.
  • 17:01 US 30-year Bond Auction.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.