AUD/USD – Strong CPI, Business Confidence Push Aussie Higher

AUD/USD has posted modest gains on Tuesday, as the pair trades in the mid-0.93 range late in the European session. On the release front, CPI and Business Confidence improved in May. In the US, the NFIB Small Business Index continued to improve and beat the estimate. Today’s highlight is JOLTS Job Openings.

The Australian dollar continues to improve, having gained about 140 points in the past week. Australian CPI jumped 2.5% in May, a four-month high. The strong reading edged above the estimate of 2.4%. NAB Business Confidence came in at 7 points, as the indicator continues to move upwards. Meanwhile, ANZ Job Advertisements took a tumble, posting a sharp decline of 5.6%, its worst showing in three years. We’ll get a look at further employment data on Thursday, with the release of Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate.

In the US, employment numbers were solid late last week. Unemployment Claims and Nonfarm Payrolls, both key indicators, met market expectations. Unemployment Claims came in at 312 thousand, slightly above the estimate of 309 thousand. Nonfarm Employment Change met modest expectations on Friday, adding 217 thousand new jobs. The estimate stood at 214 thousand. The Unemployment Rate stayed pegged at 6.3%, beating the estimate of 6.4%. Solid employment numbers add to the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will continue to trim its QE program, which it plans to wind up by the end of 2014.

 

AUD/USD for Tuesday, June 10, 2014

AUD/USD June 10 at 13:20 GMT

AUD/USD 0.9372 H: 0.9384 L: 0.9343

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.9119 0.9229 0.9361 0.9446 0.9617 0.9757

 

  • AUD/USD has posted modest gains on Tuesday.
  • 0.9361 has reverted to a support role. It is a weak line. 0.9229 is a stronger line.
  • 0.9446 is the next resistance line.

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.9361, 0.9229, 0.911 and, 0.9000
  • Above: 0.9446, 0.9617, 0.9757 and 0.9886

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions, continuing the trend we have seen since last week. This is not consistent with the movement of the pair, as the Australian dollar has posted gains. The pair currently has a majority of short positions, indicative of a trader bias towards the Australian dollar losing ground.

AUD/USD has posted modest gains on Tuesday. The pair is steady late in the European session.

 

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 1:30 Australian NAB Business Confidence. Actual 7 points.
  • 1:30 Australian ANZ Job Advertisements. Actual -5.6%.
  • 1:30 Australian Home Loans. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.0%.
  • 11:30 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 96.1 points. Actual 96.6 points.
  • 14:00 US JOLTS Job Openings. Estimate 4.04M.
  • 14:00 US Wholesale Inventories. Estimate 0.6%.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.