AUD/USD – Aussie Firm Ahead of Key Australian Numbers

AUD/USD is steady on Monday, as the pair trades in the mid-0.93-range early in the North American session. It’s a quiet start to the week, with no US releases on Monday. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will address a San Francisco Federal Reserve symposium. Early on Tuesday, we’ll get a look at Australian business confidence, employment and housing data.

In the US, employment numbers were solid late last week. Unemployment Claims and Nonfarm Payrolls, both key indicators, met market expectations. Unemployment Claims came in at 312 thousand, slightly above the estimate of 309 thousand. Nonfarm Employment Change met modest expectations on Friday, adding 217 thousand new jobs. The estimate stood at 214 thousand. The Unemployment Rate stayed pegged at 6.3%, beating the estimate of 6.4%.

Australian Trade Balance continues to lose ground. The indicator, which is closely connected to currency demand, posted a deficit of  $0.12 billion, the first deficit of 2014. This was well below the estimate of a surplus of $0.40 billion. The bright note last week was GDP, which jumped 1.1% in Q1, beating the estimate of 0.9%. It was the strongest GDP reading since Q1 of 2012.

 

AUD/USD for Monday, June 9, 2014

AUD/USD June 9 at 13:35 GMT

AUD/USD 0.9344 H: 0.9364 L: 0.9335

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.9000 0.9119 0.9229 0.9361 0.9446 0.9617

 

  • AUD is steady in Monday trade.
  • 0.9229 continues to provide strong support.
  • 0.9361 is a weak line of resistance. There is stronger resistance at 0.9446.

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.9229, 0.9119, 0.9000, 0.8893 and 0.8757
  • Above: 0.9361, 0.9446, 0.9617 and 0.9757

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio continues to point to gains in short positions, continuing the trend we saw for most of last week. This is not consistent with the movement of the pairs, as the Australian dollar is showing little movement. The pair currently has a majority of short positions, indicative of a trader bias towards the Australian dollar losing ground.

AUD/USD is stable on Monday. The pair has edged lower in the North American session.

 

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 16:00 RBA Governor Glenn Stevens Speaks.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.