Gold Steady After Mixed US Numbers

Gold prices continues to trade at its lowest levels since February, with a spot price of $1255.27 per ounce in Friday’s European session. The metal has not reacted to a decline in US GDP in Q1. In other US releases, Unemployment Claims were sharp but Pending Home Sales fell short of the estimate. On Friday, there are no major events on the schedule. Today’s highlights are Chicago PMI and  Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment.

Key numbers out of the US were mostly a disappointment on Thursday. Preliminary GDP, the primary gauge of economic activity, posted its first decline since Q2 of 2009. The indicator came in at -1.0% for Q1, worse than the estimate of -0.6%. Harsh winter conditions took their toll on the US economy in Q1, and analysts expect a rebound in Q2. After a strong gain in March, Pending Home Sales softened, coming in at 0.4%. This was nowhere near the gain of 1.1%. On a brighter note, Employment Claims dropped to 300 thousand, easily beating the estimate of 321 thousand.

As if the EU didn’t have enough trouble with the region’s listless economies, there was bad news on the political scene as well. On the weekend, anti-EU parties shocked the establishment by posting huge gains in European parliamentary elections. These “euroskeptic” parties did exceptionally well in France, the UK and Greece. With Eurozone countries suffering from weak growth and high unemployment, voters had a chance to lash back in the elections, and their frustration and anger was heard loud and clear at the ballot box. French Prime Minister Manuel Valls called the results an “earthquake” and the elections could weigh on the euro, although so far the currency has remained firm. At the same time, the EU cannot afford a ‘business as usual’ approach after such elections results, so we could soon see changes in economic policies which could affect the euro.

 

XAU/USD for Friday, May 30, 2014

 

XAU/USD May 30 at 10:25 GMT

XAU/USD 1255.27 H: 1260.40 L: 1252.60

 

XAU/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1200 1230 1250 1260 1275 1280

 

  • Gold is showing little movement on Friday.
  • 1250 continues to provide weak support. Next there is support at 1230.
  • 1260 is the next resistance line. The key level of 1275 is stronger.
  • Current range: 1250 to 1260.

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1250, 1230, 1200 and 1182
  • Above: 1260, 1275, 1280, 1300, 1315

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

XAU/USD ratio is unchanged in Friday trade. This is not consistent with the direction of the pair, as gold has edged lower. The ratio has a substantial majority of long positions, reflecting a strong trader bias towards gold turning around and gaining ground against the US dollar.

Gold is not showing much activity on Friday. XAU/USD was very quiet for most of the Asian session and has edged lower in European trading.

 

XAU/USD Fundamentals

  • 12:30 US Core PCE Price Index. Estimate 0.2%.
  • 12:30 US Personal Spending. Estimate 0.2%.
  • 12:30 US Personal Income. Estimate 0.3%.
  • 13:45 US Chicago PMI. Estimate 60.8 points.
  • 13:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 82.9 points.
  • 21:00 US FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.