AUD/USD – Little Movement As Markets Eye RBA Minutes

AUD/USD is marked by lack of movement, continuing the pattern we saw much of last week. Early in the North American session, the pair is trading in the mid-0.93 range. It’s a very quiet schedule on Monday, with no releases out of Australia or the US. On Friday, there was mixed news out of the US, as Building Permits shot higher while UoM Consumer Sentiment weakened in April.

In the US, last week ended with encouraging housing numbers. Building Permits jumped to 1.08 million, well above the estimate of 1.01 million. This was the highest level we’ve seen since December 2006. Housing Starts continues to move higher and climbed to 1.07M, compared to the estimate of 0.98M. This marked a five-month high. Meanwhile, UoM Consumer Sentiment dipped to 81.8 points, short of the estimate of 84.7 points.

Although inflation numbers have not impressed, employment and manufacturing numbers looked sharp last Thursday. Unemployment Claims were outstanding, dropping to 297 thousand last week. This easily beat the estimate of 321 thousand and was the lowest level we’ve seen since May 2007. On the manufacturing front, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index dipped to 15.4 points, but this was well above the estimate of 13.9 points. As well, Empire State Manufacturing Index climbed to 19.0 points, crushing the estimate of 5.5. This was the indicator’s best showing in two years.

We could see some movement from AUD/USD, as the RBA releases its minutes of the most recent policy meeting early on Tuesday. We can expect the minutes to note that the Bank would prefer to see the Aussie trading at lower levels, since a strong currency is weighing on the export-based economy. However, the Aussie continues to trade at high levels, as attempts by the RBA to “talk down” the currency have been ineffectual.

 

AUD/USD for Monday, May 19, 2014

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13

AUD/USD May 19 at 13:40 GMT

AUD/USD 0.9362 H: 0.9366 L: 0.9344

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.9119 0.9229 0.9361 0.9446 0.9542 0.9617

 

  • AUD/USD is trading quietly in Monday trade.
  • On the downside, 0.9361 is under strong pressure. This is followed by strong support at 0.9229.
  • On the upside, 0.9446 is a strong line of resistance.

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.9361, 0.9229, 0.9119, 0.9000 and 0.8893
  • Above: 0.9446, 0.9542, 0.9617 and 0.9703

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is unchanged in Monday trading. This is consistent with the lack of movement we continue to see from the pair. The ratio is almost evenly split between open short and long positions, indicative of a lack of bias towards what direction to expect from AUD/USD.

AUD/USD is listless on Monday. The pair is unchanged in the North American session.

 

AUD/USD Fundamentals

* There are no Australian or US releases on Monday.

 

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.