Week In FX Americas – Loonie Rides Its Last Good Wave?

• Canada Loses Jobs in April
• UE Rate Unchanged at +6.9%
• Participation Rate at 13-year low

No one was in the same ballpark when it came to forecasting Friday’s Canadian job numbers. Market consensus was looking for a +12k print. However, Stats Canada delivered a report that actually shed jobs in April (-28.9k), mostly full-time and in the private sector (financial and hospitality). The unemployment rate remained unchanged at +6.9%. With 26k individuals ceasing to look for work happened to push the participation rate to a new 13-year low at +66.1%.

Friday’s steep decline follows a surprise gain of +42.9k in March. Including April’s number, Canada added only +2.3k net new jobs per month in the past three-months. Friday’s report underscores the well-know volatility of the data. This is why it’s more prudent to be looking at a three-month trend rather than just one month’s.

The disappointing April print should keep Governor Poloz at the BoC on the sidelines at +1% for the foreseeable future. Most losses were reported in the full-time category, with -30.9k jobs actually lost. Year-to-date Canadian employment has advanced a paltry +0.8%.

With respect to the CAD and despite this week’s uptick against the dollar (Week CAD high – $1.0815) the weak job’s report should place further downward pressure on the loonie (CAD low after report $1.0906). Technical levels combined with riding a wave of better Canadian data have kept the CAD trading close to the $1.09. With a weak labor market and with further misses on economic figures expected should be cable of pushing the loonie lower and back to test the $1.1050 level where corporate dollar sell orders begin again to stack up. The risk reward play favored by most speculators favors buying USD on dips.

• CAD Drops After Negative Jobs Report – MarketPulse
• Fed Warns on Long Term Unemployment and Income Inequality – MarketPulse
• Canada Loses 28,900 Jobs in April – MarketPulse
• Yellen Says Minimum Wage Increase Could Have Negative Effect – MarketPulse
• US Jobless Claims Drop Give Boost To Employment Recovery – MarketPulse
• Janet Yellen Upbeat on US Economy Except Housing – MarketPulse
• Yellen Sees Ongoing Low Borrowing Costs – MarketPulse
• Yellen: Unemployment and Inflation Still Short of Fed’s Goals – MarketPulse
• Yellen: Economy “on track for solid growth this quarter” – MarketPulse
• OECD Optimistic About Canada Says Rate Hike More Likely – MarketPulse
• Fed Chair Yellen: The Economic Outlook – MarketPulse
• Fed’s Stein Predicts Potential Volatility with QE End – MarketPulse
• Energy Exports sees Canada Trade Surplus Narrow – MarketPulse
• OECD Warns of Complacency – MarketPulse
• US ISM Survey Rises in April – MarketPulse

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