USD/CAD ended last week with a whimper, and we are seeing more of the same on Monday. In the North American session, the pair is trading quietly in the high-1.10 range. In economic news, the highlight of the day is ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. The indicator jumped to a six-month high. There are no Canadian releases on Monday.
US employment releases looked excellent on Friday. Nonfarm Payrolls jumped to 288 thousand, easily beating the estimate of 216 thousand. The Unemployment Rate kept pace, dropping to 6.3%, its lowest level since September 2008. At the same time, the participation rate in the labor force dropped, so slack remains in the US job market, despite the strong releases in April.
The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which provides data about the services sector, impressed the markets as it climbed to 55.2 points, beating the estimate of 54.3 points. This marked the indicator’s highest level since October, as it continues to point to expansion in the services sector. The 50-point level separates expansion from contraction.
As expected, the Federal Reserve trimmed its QE program by $10 billion on Wednesday. This marks the fourth cut since December, reducing the asset purchase scheme to $45 billion/month. The tapers are no longer creating headlines as they did just a few months ago, and the dollar didn’t get any lift against its major rivals. What interested the markets more was the Fed statement that interest rates would remain low for a “considerable time” after QE ends. The markets expect QE to wind up before the end of the year, so we could see a rate hike in early 2015, depending of course, on the strength of the US economy and the job market.
USD/CAD for Monday, May 5, 2014
USD/CAD May 5 at 14:25 GMT
USD/CAD 1.0969 H: 1.0987 L: 1.0959
- USD/CAD continues to show limited movement on Monday. The pair touched a high of 1.0987 in the European session.
- 1.0906 is providing support. This is followed by a support line at 1.0852, which has held since January.
- On the upside, 1.10 remains a weak resistance line. There is stronger resistance at 1.1177.
- Current range: 1.0906 to 1.10
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.0906, 1.0852, 1.0775 and 1.0706
- Above: 1.10, 1.1094, 1.1177, 1.1319 and 1.1496
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
USD/CAD ratio is almost unchanged in Monday trading. This is reflected in the lack of movement we are seeing from the pair. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of a trader bias in favor of the US dollar breaking out and moving to higher ground.
USD/CAD is not showing much activity, as the pair continues to trade slightly below the 1.10 line. In the North American session, the pair has edged lower.
- 13:45 US Final Services PMI. Estimate 54.2 points. Actual 55.0 points.
- 14:00 US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 54.3 points. Actual 55.2 points.
- Tentative – US Loan Officer Survey.
*Key releases are highlighted in bold
*All release times are GMT