AUD/USD – Steady Ahead of US Housing Data

AUD/USD has edged lower on Monday, as the pair trades in the mid-0.93 range late in the European session. On the release front, there is just one US release, Pending Home Sales. The markets are expecting a solid gain in the March reading. There are no Australian releases on Monday.

US consumers appear to be content, as the UoM Consumer Sentiment jumped to 84.1 points in March, beating the estimate of 83.2. It marked the indicator’s highest level since June. If this optimism continues and translates into increased consumer spending, this should bode well for the US economy.

Meanwhile, the US housing sector continues to sputter. New Home Sales was a disaster, as the key indicator plunged to 384 thousand in March, down from 440 thousand in the previous release. The weak reading was nowhere near the estimate of 455 thousand, and marked an eight-month low for the key housing indicator. Earlier in the week, Existing Home Sales showed a slight drop in March, although the indicator did manage to beat the forecast. The markets are expecting better news from Pending Home Sales on Monday, with an estimate of 1.0%.

The Aussie lost ground last week after a disappointing CPI release, one of the most important economic indicators. The indicator is released each quarter, magnifying the impact of each release. The index proved once again to be a market-mover, as the Australian dollar slipped badly, as CPI posted a gain of 0.6% in Q1, falling short of the estimate of 0.8%. CPI has now dropped for a second straight quarter, and is sharply down from its gain of 1.2% back in Q3 of 2013.

 

AUD/USD for Monday, April 28, 2014

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13

AUD/USD April 28 at 13:40 GMT

AUD/USD 0.9313 H: 0.9267 L: 0.9266

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.9000 0.9119 0.9229 0.9361 0.9446 0.9542

 

  • AUD/USD is showing little movement in Monday trade. The pair broke above the 0.93 line early in the European session but was unable to consolidate these gains and has retracted.
  • On the downside, 0.9229 continues to provide strong support. Next is 0.9119, which is protecting the key 0.9000 level.
  • 0.9361 is the next resistance line. It is not a strong line and could face pressure if the Aussie moves higher.
  • Current range: 0.9229 to 0.9361.

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.9229, 0.9119, 0.9000 and 0.8893
  • Above: 0.9361, 0.9446, 0.9542, 0.9617 and 0.9703

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is unchanged in Monday trade. This is consistent with the movement of the pair, which is showing little movement. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the Australian dollar moving to higher ground.

AUD/USD has had a quiet start to the week. We could see some stronger movement from the pair in the North American session if key US housing data surprises the markets.

 

AUD/USD Fundamentals

14:00 US Pending Home Sales. Estimate 1.0%.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

 

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.