Week In FX Americas – Forex A Yawn, Gold In Demand

The forex market is ending Friday confined to a tight range (EUR has traded 14bps in North America) which is not surprising for a week that happened to print the lowest major currency volatility in seven-years.

The market is already looking forward to Monday’s European economic outlook. Setting Russia/Ukraine aside, there is only second tier data from Germany (import prices) and Italy (consumer confidence) to keep anyone interested. There is however a plethora of ECB speakers – Draghi in Bonn, while Constancio, Coeure and Praet speak in Frankfurt. The market should expect them all to tow the party line – expect talk on the outlook for policy as well as their preparedness to act now.

If one includes Russia and Ukraine into the equation, then it’s gold that should catch your attention. Currently, the yellow metal is enjoying a safe-haven bid on concerns about Russian troop movements near Ukraine. Gold is currently trading north of the psychological $1,300 print. Up until now, investors had being discounting tensions in the Ukraine and focusing on better US data to push gold prices down almost -7% from last months high.

Does the metal have the stamina to go much higher? To some the metal’s topside is limited due to the belief that there is little chance of the conflict spilling beyond Ukraine’s borders. However, do not expect to many investors to begin offloading the commodity into the weekend due to event risk – no one wants to be caught offside if something untoward does happens to occur over the weekend. Market expects resistance at $1,308-10 and $1,317. Gold’s 60-day midrange is $1,315.

WEEK AHEAD

* GBP Gross Domestic Product
* EUR German Consumer Price Index
* USD Consumer Confidence
* EUR German Unemployment Rate
* EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index
* CAD Gross Domestic Product
* USD Gross Domestic Product
* USD Federal Open Market Committee Rate Decision
* USD ISM Manufacturing
* USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls
* USD Unemployment Rate

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Dean Popplewell

Dean Popplewell

Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Dean Popplewell