EUR/USD – Gains As Eurozone, German PMIs Point Up

EUR/USD has posted gains in Wednesday trading, as the pair has climbed to the mid-1.38 range in the European session. Eurozone and German PMIs beat their estimates, although the French releases fell short of expectations. In economic news, Eurozone and German PMIs beat the forecast, but French PMIs did not keep pace, missing expectations. In the US, today’s major event is New Home Sales. The markets are expecting a stronger March reading from the key indicator.

US inflation levels have been lukewarm, but so far the Federal Reserve has done little more than point out that it would like to see inflation move closer to the Fed’s target of 2%. The House Price Index, a gauge of activity in the housing sector, rose a respectable 0.6% last month, matching the forecast. It’s a different tale in the Eurozone, where inflation continues to be persistently low and there is real concern about deflation, which could inflict serious damage on the fragile Eurozone economy. The ECB has balked at taking any action to deal with inflation, but its hand may be forced if inflation levels don’t show some life.

The markets haven’t reacted to events in Ukraine so far, but that could change if the violence in the east of the country worsens. Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened to act on his “right” to invade Ukraine, and has also given the country an ultimatum regarding its gas debt. The gas supply from Russia to western Europe is in danger, and if the situation spills out of control, we could see a sharp response from the markets. US Vice-President Joe Biden is in Kiev for a symbolic visit. The West doesn’t have many cards to play against Russia, so every move by Putin will be scrutinized and could impact on the markets.

 

EUR/USD for Wednesday, April 23, 2014

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13

EUR/USD April 23 at 11:15 GMT

EUR/USD 1.3842 H: 1.3855 L: 1.3801

 

EUR/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.3585 1.3649 1.3786 1.3893 1.4000 1.4149

 

  • EUR/USD has posted gains in Wednesday trade.
  • 1.3786 continues to provide support. 1.3649 is a stronger support level.
  • On the upside, 1.3893 has weakened as the euro has moved higher. This is followed by the key level of 1.40.
  • Current range: 1.3786 to 1.3893

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3786, 1.3649, 1.3585, 1.3410 and 1.3335
  • Above: 1.3893, 1.4000, 1.4149 and 1.4307

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is pointing to short positions in Wednesday trading. This is not consistent with the movement we are seeing from the pair, as the euro has posted gains. The ratio is made up of short positions, indicative of the dollar reversing its downward trend and moving higher.

EUR/USD has moved higher in Wednesday trading and the dollar remains under pressure in the European session.

 

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 7:00 French Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 51.9 points. Actual 50.9 points.
  • 7:00 French Flash Services PMI. Estimate 51.5 points. Actual 50.3 points.
  • 7:30 German Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 53.9 points. Actual 54.2 points.
  • 7:30 German Flash Services PMI. Estimate 53.5 points. Actual 55.0 points.
  • 8:00 Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 53.0 points. Actual 53.0 points.
  • 8:00 Eurozone Flash Services PMI. Estimate 52.7 points. Actual 53.1 points.
  • 13:45 US Flash Manufacturing PMI. Estimate 56.2 points.
  • 14:00 US New Home Sales. Estimate 455K.
  •  14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 2.6M.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

 

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.