AUD/USD – Aussie Improves After RBA Comments

AUD/USD is trading above the 0.92 line in Wednesday’s European session. The Aussie received a boost after positive comments by RBA Governor Glenn Stevens. In the US, Wednesday’s key release is Core Durable Goods Orders. The markets are expecting a much smaller gain than in the previous release.

RBA Governor Glenn Stevens gave an upbeat message on Wednesday and the Australian dollar responded with gains. Stevens said that the economy has improved thanks to the lower exchange rate since last April and improved global economic conditions. Stevens reiterated that low interest rates are unlikely to rise in 2014, as the RBA tries to boost consumer spending and residential construction.

US numbers were a mix on Tuesday. CB Consumer Confidence jumped to 82.3 points, easily surpassing the estimate of 78.7 points. This was the key indicator’s best showing since December 2007.  The news wasn’t as good from the housing sector, as New Home Sales fell to 440 thousand, down sharply from the January release of 468 thousand. The reading was short of the estimate of 447 thousand. We’ll get a look at Pending Home Sales on Thursday.

The US and its European allies have imposed limited sanctions on Russia after its annexation of Crimea, but are holding off on additional measures if Russia does not take further military action. The lack of a tough response from the West reflects divisions within Europe over how strong a stance to take against Moscow. Meanwhile, the Ukraine has signed an association agreement with the EU and is seeking a loan package of up to $20 billion from the IMF. Ukraine’s economy has suffered badly after months of political turmoil.

 

AUD/USD for Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13

AUD/USD March 26 at 14:10 GMT

AUD/USD 0.9137 H: 0.9138 L: 0.9154

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.8893 0.9000 0.9119 0.9229 0.9361 0.9466

 

  • AUD/USD continues to move higher on Wednesday. The pair pushed above the 0.92 line late in the Asian session.
  • There is support at 0.9119. This is a weak line which could see pressure if the Aussie rebounds. Next is the key level of 0.9000.
  • 0.9229 continues to provide strong resistance.
  • Current range: 0.9119 to 0.9229

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.9119, 0.9000, 0.8893, 0.8735, 0.8658
  • Above: 0.9229, 0.9361, 0.9466 and 0.9542

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is unchanged on Wednesday. This is not consistent with what we are seeing from the pair, as the Aussie has posted strong gains. AUD/USD ratio is made up of a majority of long positions, reflecting a trader bias towards the Australian dollar continuing its rally against the US currency.

The Australian dollar is moving higher and has pushed into 0.92 territory. The US dollar remains under pressure in the European session.

 

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 00:30 RBA Financial Stability Review.
  • 3:30 RBA Governor Glenn Stevens Speaks.
  • 12:30 US Core Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 0.3%.
  • 12:30 US Durable Goods Orders. Estimate 1.1%.
  • 13:45 US Flash Services PMI. Estimate 54.2 points.
  • 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 2.9M.
  • 20:30 US Bank Stress Results.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.