EUR/USD – Stable As German, Eurozone Economic Sentiment Slide

EUR/USD is stable on Tuesday, as the pair trades slightly above the 1.39 line in the European session. The markets are following fast-moving events in the Ukraine, as Crimea has voted to join Russia and the EU and the US have responded with limited sanctions. Turning to economic news, German ZEW Economic Sentiment looked awful, sliding to a ten-month low. The Eurozone indicator also slipped badly. As well, the German Constitutional Court confirmed the legality of the European Stability Mechanism. In the US, there are two major events on the schedule – Core CPI and Building Permits.

Events are moving quickly in the Ukrainian crisis. Voters in Crimea voted overwhelmingly to join Russia in Sunday’s referendum, and Russian President Putin has recognized Crimea as an independent state, paving the way for annexation. Putin will address a special session of the Russian parliament on Tuesday. The EU and US have responded with targeted sanctions, freezing assets of several high-ranking Russian officials. Additional sanctions are expected, possibly as early as this week.

US releases looked weak on Friday. PPI posted a decline for the first time since November, coming in at -0.1%. The estimate stood at +0.2%. Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment dropped below the 80-point level for the first time since November, slipping to 79.9 points. This was short of the estimate of 81.9 points. The weak PPI points to persistently low inflation numbers, which is indicative of an underperforming economy. Recent US numbers have certainly not dazzled, but they should be strong enough for the Federal Reserve to go ahead with another taper of QE. This would be the third trim of the Fed’s asset-buying scheme, and would reduce QE to $55 billion per month. These tapers are dollar-positive and mark a vote of confidence in the US economy by the Federal Reserve.

The European Stability Mechanism, which is the Eurozone’s bailout fund, was confirmed as legal by the German Federal Constitutional Court on Tuesday. Germany is the biggest contributor to the EUR 970 billion fund. In February, the court deferred a decision on the Outright Monetary Transactions, which is credited with saving weak members of the Eurozone, to the European Court of Justice.

 

EUR/USD for Tuesday, March 18, 2014

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13

EUR/USD March 18 at 11:15 GMT

EUR/USD 1.3898 H: 1.3938 L: 1.3890

 

EUR/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.3649 1.3786 1.3893 1.4000 1.4149 1.4307

 

  • EUR/USD has edged lower in Tuesday trade. The pair continues to stay close to the 1.39 line.
  • The round number of 1.40, a key level, is providing resistance. The next line of resistance is at 1.4149.
  • On the downside, the pair is testing support at 1.3893. The next support level is 1.3786.
  • Current range: 1.3893 to 1.4000

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3893, 1.3786, 1.3649, 1.3585 and 1.3410
  • Above: 1.4000, 1.4149, 1.4307 and 1.4397

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is unchanged in Tuesday trading. This is not consistent with the pair’s current movement, as the euro has edged lower. Short positions retain a strong majority, indicative of trader bias towards the dollar moving higher.

The euro continues to trade close to the 1.39 line. The euro is under pressure in the European session.

 

EUR/USD Fundamentals

  • 7:00 German WPI. Estimate +0.2%. Actual -0.1%.
  •  9:00 Italian Trade Balance. Estimate 2.47B. Actual 0.37B.
  • 9:15 German Constitutional Court Ruling on ESM.
  • 10:00 German ZEW Economic Sentiment. Estimate 52.8 points. Actual 46.6 points.
  • 10:00 Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment. Estimate 67.3 points. Actual 61.5 points.
  • 10:00 Eurozone Trade Balance. Estimate 13.9B.
  • 12:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 0.97M.
  • 12:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.1%.
  • 12:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.1%.
  • 12:30 US Housing Starts. Estimate 0.92M.
  • 13:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases. Estimate 23.4B.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.