Confidential economic modelling by the Productivity Commission has predicted that the end of local car manufacturing could cost up to 39,000 jobs, mostly in Victoria and South Australia.
The commission’s modelling of the worst case scenario after the end of production by Ford, GM Holden and Toyota in the period 2016-17, has predicted that 27,430 jobs would be lost in Victoria and 10,670 in South Australia.
This estimate comprises 11,120 direct jobs being lost at the car manufacturers, plus another 28,100 jobs in the car component supply chain.
Some industry participants believe the commission’s modelling is optimistic because it envisages no additional unemployment after five years, as former car workers get new jobs.
The commission promised in its January position paper that the modelling would be released in February. But it is still consulting industry stakeholders over the forecasting, which included a discussion in Melbourne on Tuesday.
The delay in releasing the modelling means the highly sensitive forecasts on job losses are not expected to be released until after the South Australian state election on 15 March.
via The Guardian