AUD/USD – Listless After RBA Minutes

The Australian dollar is showing very little movement as AUD/USD trades in the low-0.90 range on Tuesday. There were no dramatic statements in the RBA minutes, as the Bank said that it did not foresee any changes in interest rate levels. Over in the US, today’s highlight, the Empire State Manufacturing Index took a tumble in January.

The RBA minutes were released on Monday, and the listless response from the Aussie summarized the reserved market reaction to the release. The RBA noted that record-low interest rate levels and a weaker Australian dollar had bolstered growth, and the Bank predicted that interest rates, which currently stand at 2.50%, would remain at their current levels. The RBA did register its concern about weak employment conditions which are weighing on the economy. Last week, Employment Change posted a second straight decline and was well below market expectations. In the meantime, Australian releases started the week with a whimper, as New Motor Vehicle Sales declined 3.5%. The indicator is an important gauge of consumer spending, as new motor vehicles are big-ticket purchases which reflect consumer confidence and spending levels. The sharp slide comes after two consecutive gains.

In the US, it’s been a quiet week, with no major releases due until Wednesday. The Empire State Manufacturing Index slid to 4.5 points in January, down sharply from 12.5 a month earlier. We’ll get another look at US manufacturing numbers later in the week, with the release of the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, a key event.

 

AUD/USD for Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13

AUD/USD February 18 at 14:05 GMT

AUD/USD 0.9029 H: 0.9081 L: 0.9002

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.8735 0.8893 0.9000 0.9119 0.9229 0.9361

 

  • AUD/USD is showing little movement in Tuesday trade. The pair touched a high of 0.9081 early in the Asian session but was unable to consolidate at these levels.
  • 0.9000, a key line, continues to provide support. It is not a strong line and could face pressure during the day. This is followed by stronger support at 0.8893.
  • 0.9119 is the next line of resistance. Next, there is resistance at 0.9229.
  • Current range: 0.9000 to 0.9119

 

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.9000, 0.8893, 0.8735, 0.8658 and 0.8516
  • Above: 0.9119, 0.9229, 0.9361 and 0.9466

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio has reversed directions on Tuesday, pointing to gains in long positions. This is not consistent with what we are seeing from the pair, as the pair is showing little movement. AUD/USD ratio continues to have a majority of long positions, reflecting a trader bias towards the Aussie posting gains against the US currency.

AUD/USD remains above the 0.90 line in Tuesday trading. The pair is steady late in the European session.

 

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 00:30 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.
  • 13:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 9.9 points. Actual 4.5 points.
  • 14:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases. Estimate +28.9B. Actual -45.9B.
  • 15:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 56 points.

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

 

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.