Precious metals continue to climb higher with Silver being the biggest percentage gainer W/W. However, Gold isn’t that far behind, gaining close to 4.2% from last week’s open to close. This gain continued this morning as prices pushed above 1,320 resolutely, hitting a high of 1,330 before pulling back slightly.
What is interesting is that we’re hard pressed to find good reason for current rally in precious metals. Previously we could explain the rally due to risk off appetite in January driving safe haven assets higher, while gains in early Feb could have been attributed to stimulus speculation where market participants could have expected Yellen and Fed to halt QE tapering as recent economic data hasn’t been the most encouraging. However, Yellen has since said clarified that the pace of taper is expected to continue and it will take a significant shift in current economic recovery before they stop tapering. Hence, there shouldn’t be any good reason for Gold to climb higher.
Yet the gains are real, and we cannot even accuse of the price of being non-reflective of actual market sentiment as this gain is supported by volume. Latest COT numbers showed that net long positions have increased by more than 8,500 contracts W/W, and current 71.2K contracts is more than triple that of the recent low of 22.7K during the week of 3rd December. Certainly more people are buying up Gold and that drives up prices, and from a pure momentum perspective, this uptrend that we’re looking now is adequately supported and a quick fire sale of Gold in the near future is unlikely.
Given all these mentioned above, it becomes more likely that prices may find some support around 1,320 previous ceiling turned support and/or rising Channel Bottom – whichever comes first – should a rebound off Channel Top occurs. This possibility is real as we’ve not seen any significant pullback since 10th Feb when the breakout of 1,265 started. Given that Stochastic readings have finally broken off from the Overbought region after staying there for the entirety of Friday’s session, we could see a relatively deeper bearish correction right now.
Also, considering that there isn’t any good fundamental reasons to propel Gold higher other than traders demand, it becomes harder to gauge how long this uptrend will continue. This does not necessarily means that prices will come off right now, but certainly increases the likelihood of a bearish pullback in the near term as there is nothing fundamentally supportive of this move, and we know that traders (especially institutional ones which COT reflects) are a fickle bunch.
Nothing much can be gleamed off Daily Chart other than the fact that bullish momentum is strong. Stochastic readings are also deeply Overbought with Signal line catching up with the Stoch curve, suggesting that a Stoch curve reversal may be occurring soon. Nonetheless the next significant bullish target would be 1,360, but traders will need to weigh if such a move is likely given the weak fundamental support and the strong overbought levels of current momentum.