EUR/USD is trading quietly on Monday. In the European session, the pair is trading just above the 1.37 line. The week ended on a positive note, as Euro GDP releases were better than expected. In the US, Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment improved in January. It’s a very quiet day on the release front, as the US markets are closed for a holiday. In Europe, the German central bank will release its monthly report and the Eurogroup meets in Brussels.
There was some good news out of the Eurozone on Friday, as Preliminary GDP numbers pointed higher. German GDP gained 0.4%, beating the forecast of 0.3%. French GDP was up 0.3%, above the estimate of 0.2%, while the Italian indicator posted its first gain in almost a year, with a gain of 0.1%, matching the estimate. Eurozone Flash GDP followed suit, posting a gain of 0.3%, which edged above the estimate 0.2%. While not dramatic gains, these figures do point to slight growth in the major Eurozone economies. This will be music to the ears of the ECB, which is grappling with low inflation levels and weak economic activity in the Eurozone.
The markets had little to cheer about on Thursday as all three US key releases disappointed. Unemployment Claims rose to 337 thousand, above the estimate of 331 thousand. This reading comes on the heels of JOLTS Job Openings earlier in the week, which also missed market expectations. Core Retail Sales dropped to 0.0%, a nine-month low. The estimate stood at 0.1%. Retail Sales brought no relief, slipping to -0.4%, short of the estimate of 0.0%. The euro took full advantage of the news, surging close to 100 points on Thursday.
Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, who is brand new on the job, didn’t generate much excitement in the markets when she testified before Congress last week. She said that the Fed plans to continue trimming QE during the year. She acknowledged that even though the unemployment rate has improved steadily, the recovery in the labor market is far from complete and the Fed plans to keep interest rates at ultra-low levels. Yellen, who took over as Fed chair on February 1, is expected to continue the policies of her predecessor, Bernard Bernanke.
EUR/USD for Monday, February 17, 2014
EUR/USD February 17 at 11:30 GMT
EUR/USD 1.3707 H: 1.3724 L: 1.3694
- EUR/USD is steady in Monday trading. The pair has stayed close to the 1.37 line during the Asian and European sessions.
- 1.3649 continues in a support role. The next support line is at 1.3585.
- 1.3786 is the next line of resistance. This is followed by resistance at 1.3893.
- Current range: 1.3649 to 1.3786
Further levels in both directions:
- Below: 1.3649, 1.3585, 1.3410, 1.3347 and 1.3255
- Above: 1.3786, 1.3893, 1.4000 and 1.4149.
OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
EUR/USD ratio is almost unchanged in Monday trading. This is consistent with what we are seeing from the pair, which is showing very little activity. Short positions enjoy a strong majority in the ratio, indicative of trader bias towards the dollar breaking out and moving higher against the euro.
The euro starts the week at high levels, as it trades close to the 1.37 line on Monday. EUR/USD is showing little change in the European session.
- All Day – Eurogroup Meetings.
- 11:00 German Buba Monthly Report.
*Key releases are highlighted in bold
*All release times are GMT