Private Opinion: U.S. Recovery may be a “False Dawn”

Despite signs that the U.S. economy is gaining traction, Stephen Roach, former chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, says the recovery appears to be a “false dawn.”

“Financial markets and the so-called Davos consensus are in broad agreement that something close to a classic cyclical revival may finally be at hand for the U.S. But is it?” Roach, a senior fellow at Yale University, wrote in an op-ed published on the Project Syndicate website on Monday.

“At first blush, the celebration seems warranted… But my advice is to keep the champagne on ice,” he said.  Roach argues that two quarters of strengthening gross domestic product (GDP) growth doesn’t indicate a breakout from an anemic recovery. He cited a temporary acceleration in the second and third quarters of 2010 as well as in the fourth quarter of 2011 and the first quarter of 2012.

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