Week In FX Americas – The Loonies’ Week from Hell

The Canadian dollar has taken it on the chin this week, already down -4.5% against its largest trading partner, the USD this year, the currency is closing out the week on the back foot and this despite the presence of a stronger retail sales headline print yesterday (+0.6%). Notwithstanding keeping rates on hold mid-week (+1%), the Bank of Canada’s policy statement leans towards a further easing bias, without explicitly making the change in stance.

Governor Poloz removed from its statement the phrase that the “substantial monetary policy stimulus currently in place remains appropriate,” which happened to appear in the last statement only a month ago. Many believe that within the context of the BoC’s heightened concern about persistently low inflation, the omission represents a step closer towards an easing bias.

However, on Friday, total inflation in Canada fell -0.2%, m/m in December, with a y/y pace of inflation to +1.2%, back into the Banks 1-3% target range from +0.9% in the month before. The increase in the yearly pace of both headline and core prices – up to +1.3% – is likely to bring some sense of calm to the “disinflation weary Governor Poloz.”

Canadian bond prices happened to soften slightly on the Canada’s inflation headline, but do remain better bid, along with US Treasurys from a flight to safety bid as investors scrambled out of riskier emerging assets. This too has the CAD shifting ever so slightly away from its newly cemented lows for the time being. Nevertheless, the “mighty buck” is expected to remain better bid on pullbacks until some normalcy reappears within all asset classes.

WEEK AHEAD

* GBP Gross Domestic Product
* USD Durable Goods Orders
* USD Consumer Confidence
* USD Fed QE3 Pace
* USD FOMC Rate Decision
* NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision
* EUR German Unemployment Rate
* EUR German Consumer Price Index
* USD Gross Domestic Product
* USD Personal Consumption
* JPY National Consumer Price Index
* EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index
* CAD Gross Domestic Product
* CNY Manufacturing PMI

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Dean Popplewell

Dean Popplewell

Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Dean Popplewell