AUD/USD – Aussie Edges Higher Despite Tepid Data

The Australian dollar has posted slight gains in Tuesday trading, as AUD/USD has crossed above the 0.91 line. In economic news, Australian NAB Business Confidence showed no movement, while Home Loans fell short of the estimate. Westpac Consumer Sentiment will be released later on Tuesday. In the US, there are just three releases on the schedule, highlighted by JOLT Job Openings.

Australian releases have not been impressive, and Tuesday’s numbers could have been stronger. NAB Business Confidence came in at 5 points, unchanged from the October reading. Home Loans posted a gain of 1.0%, well of last month’s reading of 4.4%, and missing the estimate of 1.3%. Last week, Retail Sales and GDP missed their estimates, and the Aussie will have a tough time keeping pace with the US dollar if Australian releases don’t show improvement.

In the US, employment numbers continued to impress last week. After another strong Unemployment Claims release, Non-Farm Payrolls was almost unchanged, coming in at 203 thousand. This was well above the estimate of 180 thousand. The Unemployment Rate dropped from 7.3% to 7.0%, beating the estimate of 7.2%. The strong numbers are sure to increase the pressure on the Fed to taper QE when its meets later in December. The Fed has said that a stronger employment picture is a prerequisite to tapering, and last week’s numbers certainly increase the possibility of the Fed taking action at its December policy meeting.

 

AUD/USD for Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13

AUD/USD December 10 at 12:30 GMT

AUD/USD 0.9116 H: 0.9128 L: 0.9089

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.8735 0.8893 0.9000 0.9119 0.9229 0.9305

 

  • AUD/USD has posted modest gains in Tuesday trading. The pair pushed above the 0.91 line earlier in the European session.
  • The pair continues to receive support at the key level of 0.9000. This is followed by support at 0.8893.
  • On the upside, 0.9119 is providing resistance. This line is having a busy week and could face further pressure during the day. This is followed by a resistance line at 0.9229.
  • Current range: 0.9000 to 0.9119

 

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.9000, 0.8893, 0.8735 and 0.8658
  • Above: 0.9119, 0.9200, 0.9305, 0.9400 and 0.9508

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains by long positions in Tuesday trading. This is reflected in the current movement of the pair, as the Australian dollar has moved higher. The ratio is made up of a substantial majority of long positions, reflecting a trader bias towards the Australian dollar continuing to post gains.

The Australian dollar has made gains and is back in 0.91 territory. With the US releasing more employment numbers on Tuesday, we could see some volatility from AUD/USD in the North American session.

 

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 00:30 Australian NAB Business Confidence. Actual 5 points.
  • 00:30 Australian Home Loans. Estimate 1.3%. Actual 1.0%.
  • 12:30 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 92.7 points.
  • 15:00 US JOLTS Openings. Estimate 3.96M.
  • 15:00 US Wholesale Inventories. Estimate 0.3%.
  • 23:30 Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment.

 

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.