Week in FX Europe – EUR And EM Rally Delays A December Fed Taper

Is December too early for the Fed to begin tapering? The way that some of the emerging markets currencies have been trading would suggest that many believe that could be the case. Friday’s stronger than anticipated November non-farm payroll report was expected to go some ways to support Bernanke and company to begin paring back on their $85b a month-bond-buying program. That should have led to the USD rallying against Emerging Market currencies. Instead, the knee-jerk pro-tapering trades got battered in a market reversal. For instances, the ZAR rallied +1% against the dollar from being -1% weaker before the headline release. It seems that the market is comfortable pricing out a potential December taper believing that there will not be enough support amongst the voting Fed members to push through a December taper start. In fact the next FOMC meeting in two weeks time has probably come too soon.

The +203k NFP print was at best “in-line” with expectations, it did not exceed. The bear steepening in US 2/10’s treasuries should have continued, in fact it flattened after the job announcement when real-money started buying UST’s and pulled longer term yields off their highs. A stronger dollar would favor higher US yields further out the curve. Even November presented a somewhat healthy drop in the unemployment rate to +7% given how the participation rate also happened to tick up. But Analysts note that’s mostly a recovery from a shutdown-driven drop in participation in October. Ben will probably have to back away from his forward guidance of +6.5% threshold employment rate for the start of rate hikes. Even this week’s pain trade, a strong EUR outright, continues to find support on good US data. For some, December remains in the picture, however January 2014 is still more probable.

WEEK AHEAD

* JPY Gross Domestic Product
* CNY Consumer Price Index
* GBP NIESR Gross Domestic Product Estimate
* NZD Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision
* AUD Unemployment Rate
* CHF Swiss National Bank Rate Decision
* USD Advance Retail Sales

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Dean Popplewell

Dean Popplewell

Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Dean Popplewell