USD/CAD – Edges Higher As Markets Eye Federal Reserve Minutes

USD/CAD has moved slightly higher on Tuesday, as the pair continues to trade in the mid-1.04 range. In economic news, Tuesday has a light schedule, with just one data release out of the US. Today’s highlights include speeches by US Treasury Jack Lew and two FOMC members. There are no releases out of Canada on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its most recent policy meeting. This event is a market-mover and analysts will be paying close attention to the minutes, especially regarding QE. The markets are expecting the Fed to hold off from tapering in December, as US numbers are still not as strong as the Fed would like. Market sentiment is leaning towards the Fed sticking to its present monetary policy, and any surprises in the minutes would likely shake up the currency markets.

Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases looked sharp in October, coming in at C$8.36 billion, bouncing back nicely from the previous release of C$2.08 billion. The easily beat the estimate of C$6.71 billion. The indicator is closely linked to currency demand, since foreigners need to purchase Canadian dollars in order to buy domestic securities. So, a stronger indicator is good news for the Canadian dollar.

Federal Reserve chair-elect Janet Yellen testified before the powerful Senate Banking Committee last week. Yellen has been an ardent supporter of QE, and told the committee that the present level of asset purchases should continue until growth improves and unemployment falls. She said that the labor market and economy are performing “far short of their potential”, but added that she expects inflation to remain below the Fed’s target of 2%. Yellen, who is slated to become the first woman to head the Federal Reserve, will take over from Bernard Bernanke in January.

 

USD/CAD for Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13

USD/CAD November 19 at 15:20 GMT

USD/CAD 1.0443 H: 1.0449 L: 1.0415

 

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0282 1.0337 1.0442 1.0502 1.0573 1.0652

 

  • USD/CAD is almost unchanged in Tuesday trading. The pair touched a low of 1.0415 early in the European session.
  • On the upside, the pair is facing resistance at 1.0502. This is followed by resistance at 1.0573.
  • The pair is testing support at 1.0442. This line has already been breached and could face more pressure during the day. This is followed by stronger support at 1.0337.
  • Current range: 1.0442 to 1.0502

 

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.0442, 1.0337, 1.0282, 1.0224 and 1.0158
  • Above 1.0502, 1.0573, 1.0652 and 1.0837 and 1.0945

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is pointing to slight gains in long positions in Tuesday trading. This is reflected in the current movement of the pair, as the US dollar has posted very slight gains. A majority of the open positions in the USD/CAD ratio are short, indicating a trader bias towards the Canadian dollar moving to higher ground.

The Canadian dollar is steady in Tuesday trading, with the pair continuing to trade in the mid-1.04 range. With no major releases out of the US today, the pair’s movement in the North American session could be limited in scope.

 

USD/CAD Fundamentals

  • 13:30 US Employment Cost. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.4%.
  • 13:45 US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew Speaks.
  • 15:00 FOMC Member William Dudley Speaks.
  • 19:15 FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks.
  • 20:00 President Barack Obama Speaks.

 

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

 

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.