OECD Revises Growth Forecast Down Due to Emerging Markets

Global growth for 2013 and 2014 has been downgraded “significantly” after weak prospects in emerging markets, says the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.

Global GDP this year is now expected to grow by 2.7%, down from 3.1% forecast in May.

But it said global economic growth would speed up by 2015.

However, the OECD said the UK would grow by 1.4% this year, an upgrade from its forecast in May of 0.8%.

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Analysis

Andrew Walker
BBC World Service Economics correspondent
It is achingly slow, but what this report points to is a protracted process of economic repair after the damage done by the financial crisis – and remember we are now five years on from its most intense phase.

The language is often downbeat: a “modest acceleration” in growth; unemployment to remain “stubbornly high” in several countries.

There is also something between a warning and plea to the United States to steer clear of a “potentially catastrophic crisis” over the government’s borrowing limit, after a near miss in October.

There are elements in this outlook that are sunnier than the OECD’s previous forecast. The UK economy is one example. It is said to have gathered momentum. But the global forecast has been lowered. It will grow if these predictions are right, but no real celebrations for a while yet.

UK growth would accelerate to 2.4% in 2014, above economists’ expectations of 2.2%, it said.

It said signs of improvement were “particularly apparent” in the UK, and monetary policy was likely to remain “appropriate” for some time.

The OECD also revised down its global growth forecast for 2014, which it now estimates at 3.6%. In May, it had forecast 4%.

In a first estimate for 2015, it predicts growth of 3.9%.

via BBC

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza