USD/CAD – Loonie Moves Higher As Ivey PMI Soars

The Canadian dollar has improved in Wednesday trading. The currency has recovered from yesterday’s losses, as USD/CAD trades in the low-1.04 range in the North American session. In Canada, Building Permits rebounded nicely in October, but fell short of the estimate. However, the Ivey PMI was superb, hitting a five-month high. There are no major releases out of the US on Wednesday.

Canadian Building Permits tends to show sharp fluctuations, making accurate forecasts a tricky task. The indicator posted a gain of 1.7% in September, compared to a decline of 21.2% the month before. However, the markets had expected a gain of 7.8%. Ivey PMI, another key indicator, rose sharply, from 51.9 points in September to 62.8 in October. This crushed the estimate of 54.7 and was the strongest showing since June. The Canadian dollar responded positively to these readings, as USD/CAD dropped into the low-1.o4 range.

Although the Bank of Canada maintained interest rates at 1% at its last meeting, the removal of the tightening bias, which had been in place since April 2012, indicates that the Bank is in no hurry to raise interest rates for the foreseeable future. This could result in investors searching for greener pastures outside of Canada, which could have a negative impact on the Canadian dollar, which has been struggling lately.

The week started on a positive note for US key releases. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI rose to 55.4 points in October, up from 54.4 the month before. This beat the estimate of 54.0 points. We’ll get a look at Unemployment Claims and Non-Farm Payrolls later in the week, and if these numbers are strong, there is sure to be talk of QE tapering in December, as the Fed has said on numerous occasions that the employment market must improve before QE tapering can occur.

The Federal Reserve met for a policy meeting last week, the first since Congress reached an agreement on the debt ceiling and the shutdown. As expected, the Fed said that it would maintain QE at current levels of $85 billion each month. However, the Fed’s policy statement was less dovish than expected, as the Fed noted that the economy was expanding “at a moderate pace” and left the door open for QE tapering in December. Still, the prevailing view in the markets is that short of a sharp turnaround in US numbers, QE tapering will be on hold until early 2014.

 

USD/CAD for Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13

USD/CAD November 6 at 16:00 GMT

USD/CAD 1.0420 H: 1.0459 L: 1.0412

 

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.0224 1.0282 1.0337 1.0442 1.0502 1.0573

 

  • USD/CAD has lost ground in Wednesday trading. The Canadian dollar has shown strength in the North American session and touched a low of 1.0412.
  • The line of 1.0442 has reverted back to a resistance role. This is a weak line which could see further action during the day. This is followed by strong resistance at 1.0502.
  • USD/CAD is receiving support at 1.0337. This is followed by a support line at 1.0282, which has remained intact since late October.
  • Current range: 1.0337 to 1.0442

 

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.0337, 1.0282, 1.0224 and 1.0158
  • Above 1.0442, 1.0502, 1.0573, 1.0652 and 1.0837

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio has reversed positions on Wednesday, pointing to gains by short positions. This is reflected in the current movement of the pair, as the Canadian dollar has gained ground. A majority of the open positions in the USD/CAD ratio are short, indicating a trader bias towards the Canadian dollar continuing to move higher.

The Canadian dollar has posted gains on Wednesday, reversing the downward trend we have seen from USD/CAD so far this week. With no major releases out of the US on Wednesday, we can expect movement in the North American session to be subdued.

 

USD/CAD Fundamentals

  • 13:30 Canadian Building Permits. Estimate 7.8%. Actual 1.7%.
  • 12:30 US Challenger Job Cuts. Actual -4.2%.
  • 15:00 Canadian Ivey PMI. Estimate 54.7 points. Actual 62.8 points.
  • 15:00 US CB Leading Index. Estimate. 0.7%. Actual 0.7%.
  • 15:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 1.7M. Actual 1.6M.

 

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.