China Rises Exports Forecast With Recovery Back on Track

China’s exports are forecast to have rebounded in October after a surprise fall, reinforcing the government’s view that the economy has regained some momentum as its prepares to unveil plans to overhaul the world’s second-largest economy.

Forecasts in a Reuters poll for October data due out from later this week also have inflation rising to an 18-month high, retail sales and M2 money supply growth rates edging up slightly, while investment and industrial output tick down.

China’s leaders have touted stability rather than fast growth as they head into the Communist Party’s third plenary session, to be held November 9-12, where they are expected to outline plans to transform the economy into one driven by consumers rather than credit and investment.

“Given that policymakers have already said that they are no longer worried about meeting the growth target, we expect the focus to be on restructuring reforms,” said Jiaguang Shen, an economist with Minzhuo Securities in a note.

State media has quoted President Xi Jinping saying the reform plan would be comprehensive, and a series of articles from the official Xinhua news agency have flagged sweeping changes.

Analysts expect the economy to slow in the December quarter after growing at its quickest pace this year between July and September, in part due to the reform push but also because of global uncertainties.

via Reuters

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Alfonso Esparza

Alfonso Esparza

Senior Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Alfonso Esparza specializes in macro forex strategies for North American and major currency pairs. Upon joining OANDA in 2007, Alfonso Esparza established the MarketPulseFX blog and he has since written extensively about central banks and global economic and political trends. Alfonso has also worked as a professional currency trader focused on North America and emerging markets. He has been published by The MarketWatch, Reuters, the Wall Street Journal and The Globe and Mail, and he also appears regularly as a guest commentator on networks including Bloomberg and BNN. He holds a finance degree from the Monterrey Institute of Technology and Higher Education (ITESM) and an MBA with a specialization on financial engineering and marketing from the University of Toronto.
Alfonso Esparza