AUD/USD – Almost Unchanged As Markets Await US Housing Data

AUD/USD has edged higher as we begin the new trading week. The pair is trading in the mid-0.96 range early in Monday’s North American session. In economic news, it’s a slow start to the week, with no Australian releases. Today’s highlight is US Existing Home Sales. The markets will also be keeping a close eye on Non-Farm Payrolls, which will be released on Tuesday.

After a bitter political struggle which saw the US on the brink of a sovereign default, the Republicans and Democrats finally reached an agreement last week to reopen the government and raise the debt ceiling. However, the deal provides short-term relief only – the government will be funded until January 15, while the debt limit will be raised until February 7. So, we could be right back where we started in just a few months. The dollar initially gained ground after the agreement was announced, but was broadly lower as optimism faded.

The recent government shutdown cancelled some US economic releases, notably Non Farm Payrolls, one of the most important employment releases. The September report was supposed to be released in early October, but has been rescheduled for release on Tuesday. The NFP release could have a major impact on EUR/USD. Meanwhile, last week’s Unemployment Claims came in at 357 thousand, very close to the estimate of 358 thousand. This figure was an improvement from last week, but still well above previous releases. The shutdown inflated the release, as hundreds of thousands of Federal employees were laid off. This week’s estimate is lower, with an estimate of 341 thousand.

 

AUD/USD for Monday, October 21, 2013

Forex Rate Graph 21/1/13

AUD/USD October 21 at 13:45 GMT

AUD/USD 0.9659 H: 0.9679 L: 0.9643

 

AUD/USD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.9400 0.9508 0.9613 0.9700 0.9821 0.9900

 

  • AUD/USD is trading quietly on Monday, as the proximate support and resistance lines (S1 and R1 above) remain in place.
  • The pair is facing resistance at 0.9600. This is followed by a resistance line at 0.9821.
  • On the downside, the pair is receiving support at 0.9613. This is followed by a strong support line at 0.9508.
  • Current range: 0.9613 to 0.9700

 

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 0.9613, 0.9508, 0.9400, 0.9328 and 0.9221
  • Above: 0.9700, 0.9821, 0.9900 and 1.00

 

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

AUD/USD ratio is pointing towards short positions in Monday trading. This is not reflected in the pair’s current movement, as the pair is almost unchanged. A majority of the open positions in the AUD/USD ratio are long, reflecting a trader bias towards the Australian dollar gaining ground. It’s a quiet start to the week, as AUD/USD trades in the mid-0.96 range. With the US releasing key housing data later in the day, we could see some volatility from the pair if the release is not in line with market expectations.

 

AUD/USD Fundamentals

  • 12:00 FOMC Member Charles Evans Speaks.
  • 14:00 US Existing Home Sales. Estimate 5.31M.
  • 14:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 3.4M.

 

*Key releases are highlighted in bold

*All release times are GMT

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Kenny Fisher

Kenny Fisher

Currency Analyst at Market Pulse
Kenny Fisher joined OANDA in 2012 as a Currency Analyst. Kenny writes a daily column about current economic and political developments affecting the major currency pairs, with a focus on fundamental analysis. Kenny began his career in forex at Bendix Foreign Exchange in Toronto, where he worked as a Corporate Account Manager for over seven years.