Week in FX Asia – Not All Dull And Boring In China

Now that Washington politicking has been suspended for a few more months at least, the market and investors can knuckle down and concentrate on the rest of the world as well. However, before totally committing themselves there is the “small” matter of getting through some backdated US economic reports starting with next Tuesday’s US non-farm payrolls. So far the market has been pricing out fiscal concerns and pricing in their expectations for US monetary policy. With Fed tapering being pushed further out the dollar has suffered and closing out the week just shy of yearly lows against the majors.

The US’s credibility overseas will certainly be put to the test. The never was any real fear that the country’s reputation of being the primary issuer or reserve currency of choice would be called into question, despite China inquiring about the ‘dollars’ attributes. China’s Dagong rating agency has added more woes to the “mighty” dollar when it cut the US sovereign rating to A- yesterday.

Providing some market encouragement is stronger data out of China. Its economy grew +7.8%, y/y, in Q3 of 2013, in line with the median forecast and accelerating from +7.5% in Q2. Even September’s industrial production (IP) was healthy, rising +10.2%, y/y, in line with market expectations. The disappointments came with retail sales and fixed-asset investments, both a tad weaker. The street now expects consecutive quarter growth to soften somewhat going forward following the strong summer activity.

The results suggest that the Chinese economy remains on target to meet the government’s annual growth target of +7.5%, and ease the concerns about a “hard landing.” Everyone is watching for progress in Beijing’s efforts to rebalance the economy and to make “consumption a bigger influencing variable for growth.” The Chinese Yuan ends the week setting a record high (6.0989) for the fifth consecutive session. Beijing has intervened aggressively lately to blunt a rise in the Yuan’s value. The PBoC continues to proceed with caution in liberalizing its forex exchange policy. Communist leaders are due to hold a key policy meeting next month and market will be interested in their take away of US fiscal fiasco.

 

WEEK AHEAD

* USD Unemployment Rate
* USD Change in Non-farm Payrolls
* AUD Consumer Prices Index
* GBP Bank of England Minutes
* CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision
* JPY National Consumer Price Index
* GBP Gross Domestic Product
* USD Durable Goods Orders

 

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

Dean Popplewell

Dean Popplewell

Vice-President of Market Analysis at MarketPulse
Dean Popplewell has nearly two decades of experience trading currencies and fixed income instruments. He has a deep understanding of market fundamentals and the impact of global events on capital markets. He is respected among professional traders for his skilled analysis and career history as global head of trading for firms such as Scotia Capital and BMO Nesbitt Burns. Since joining OANDA in 2006, Dean has played an instrumental role in driving awareness of the forex market as an emerging asset class for retail investors, as well as providing expert counsel to a number of internal teams on how to best serve clients and industry stakeholders.
Dean Popplewell